Bracketology update: First 4 out – Butler has serious work to do

We are almost two weeks away from Selection Sunday, which means Bracketology is in full effect. What kind of work do the first four teams out have to do?

Being on the wrong side of the bubble is a bad place to be no matter who you are when there are less than two weeks until Selection Sunday. Without a win this weekend all the team’s who currently sit in the Last Four Out of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology on ESPN can kiss the NCAA Tournament goodbye unless they win their conference tournaments.

Temple, Dayton, Saint Mary’s, and Butler are the team’s currently living in a dangerous place, but with two or three more games left on the schedule, nothing is set in stone just yet.

All four teams will be in action this weekend looking to do whatever they can to get back on the right side of the bubble. Wins will continue that conversation, while a loss likely seals the fate of all four teams – sending them to the NIT (without winning the league championship).

Let’s take a look at each team and their weekend matchups.

Temple

20-8 (10-5)

Matchup: Tulane

Temple needs to win all three of their final conference games, and at least one or two games in the AAC Conference Tournament to have any chance at winning an at large bid.

While no game is ever a lock the Owls have two matchups coming up with Tulane (4-23) and UConn (10-15), two of the worst teams overall in the AAC. Win those and you’re looking better, lose them and you’re done. Beating Tulane alone won’t do much, as they are one of the worst teams in the country – but it will at least help move them to 21-8 (11-5).

The Owls don’t have much to fall back on in terms of a resume. While they rank 56th in the NET rankings, they are 2-5 against Quadrant 1 teams and have a horrible loss against Penn on their home floor.

A lot can change in a few weeks, but without winning out (and a few tourney games) as well as getting some losses from teams a little further up in the bubble, Temple is looking NIT bound.

Saint Mary’s

20-10 (11-4)

Matchup: No. 1 Gonzaga

Unlike the rest of the teams on the bubble, Saint Mary’s has really only one more chance (besides the conference tournament) to earn an at-large bid. In order to get another win, they’ll have to do so against the nations top team, Gonzaga.

Much like Temple, Saint Mary’s doesn’t really have much of a resume compared to some of the other bubble teams when it comes to making the tournament. They hold losses to BYU, Pepperdine, and San Francisco inside of the WCC, with losses to Harvard, Western Kentucky, and UC Irvine out of conference.

With just one Quadrant One win, everything will come down to beating Gonzaga on Saturday. If they can do that, they’d have one of the best resume wins of any bubble team in the country. If not, stick a fork in ’em, they’re done.

Dayton

19-9 (11-4)

Matchup: Rhode Island

At 19-9 overall and 11-4 in the conference, you can see just how weak the bubble really is this season. In most years, this type of record from Dayton would give them a 0 percent chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, but here we are.

Dayton currently holds the second place spot in the Atlantic 10 conference, behind VCU, a team that they’ve lost to twice already this season. The Flyers will get a matchup with Rhode Island on Friday night, a team who has been used to being in the tournament themselves the last few years, but has struggled to get things going in year one without Danny Hurley. Picking up a win is 100 percent necessary for Dayton, and they’ll likely need to win at least three or four more games (including the conference tournament) and say a few prayers if they have any shot of making the field.

Butler

15-13 (6-9)

Matchup: at Villanova 

The saying goes “the cat has nine lives” but this season the Butler Bulldogs are the ones who have proven to withstand multiple “kill shots” from opposing teams. Every time they look down and out, they find a way to pull out a win that gets them right back into the thick of things. While they do have two Quadrant 1 wins, they both feel like they were centuries ago, one coming against Florida and the other against Georgetown.

The Bulldogs had two chances last week to pick up big wins, and unfortunately for them, they weren’t able to win either one, falling to No. 11 Marquette by 10 and Providence by three in overtime.

Now for LaVall Jordan and company, the mission is rather simple; win. With a matchup against the Big East’s second place team on Saturday, Villanova, the Bulldogs can’t get right back into the bubble conversation. Then it’s on to Xavier on Tuesday night, followed up by the season closing matchup with Providence, this time on the road.

If Butler drops any of those games, they’d need a miracle in order to make the tournament. With the way, the Big East has played out this season a team with a sub .500 record in conference play just won’t have the wins and resume necessary to make the tournament as an at-large team, regardless of what types of wins they have out of conference.