Fansided

5 reasons Duke will win the ACC Tournament

By Mike Phillips

CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 09: Zion Williamson #1 of the Duke Blue Devils watches on before their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Dean Smith Center on March 09, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA - MARCH 09: Zion Williamson #1 of the Duke Blue Devils watches on before their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels at Dean Smith Center on March 09, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /
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CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – MARCH 09: Coby White #2 of the North Carolina Tar Heels goes after a loose ball against Cam Reddish #2 of the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Dean Smith Center on March 09, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA – MARCH 09: Coby White #2 of the North Carolina Tar Heels goes after a loose ball against Cam Reddish #2 of the Duke Blue Devils during their game at Dean Smith Center on March 09, 2019 in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

4. It’s really hard to beat a team three times in one season

Assuming Duke gets by Syracuse in the quarterfinals, they would likely have a third matchup with their arch-rivals, the North Carolina Tar Heels, on the docket. Logic would suggest this isn’t great for Duke, which got swept in the regular season by the Tar Heels for the first time in a decade.

Two things work in Duke’s favor here, however, and the first is the impending return of Zion Williamson. Williamson, who missed all but 36 seconds of both games due to injury, could be a major difference maker on the inside in this matchup.

The other advantage Duke has is that it is historically difficult to defeat the same team three times in a single season. North Carolina hasn’t pulled off the feat against Duke since 1967, so asking them to pull off that feat this season may be tough since they haven’t faced a healthy Duke team yet.

There is also no guarantee North Carolina even gets that far because the Tar Heels could face off with Louisville in the quarterfinals. Louisville has split a pair of meetings with North Carolina this season, so they know what it takes to beat Roy Williams’ squad.

3. Duke owns Virginia

The ACC’s top seed this season belongs to the Virginia Cavaliers, who were dominant in the regular season. Tony Bennett’s squad went 28-2 in the regular season, including a very impressive 16-2 mark in the ACC.

The problem for the Cavaliers is that both of those losses came to Duke. It seems hypocritical to say that North Carolina won’t beat them three times in a year but expect the Blue Devils to do it to Virginia, but recent history supports this argument.

Since Bennett took over as Virginia’s head coach in 2009, the Cavaliers are just 3-11 against Duke. Virginia has made the NCAA Tournament six times in that span, so it’s hard to write off that resume as a result of having bad teams along the way.

The Cavaliers also have arguably the most difficult path to the finals of any top seed. Virginia’s first game will feature the winner of the 8-9 matchup between N.C. State and Clemson, two desperate bubble teams in need of a major win.

If Virginia survives that game, they could face Florida State or Virginia Tech in the semi-finals, two of the most dangerous teams in the league outside the top three. That gauntlet could leave Virginia worn down by the time it gets to Duke, leaving the Cavaliers ripe for the picking.