2019 NCAA Tournament: Who will be the 2019 UMBC? 5 likely candidates

By Jacob Lane | Mar 20, 2019

CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 16: K.J. Maura #11 and teammate Jourdan Grant #5 of the UMBC Retrievers celebrate their 74-54 victory over the Virginia Cavaliers during the first round of the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Spectrum Center on March 16, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images) /

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GAINESVILLE, FL – NOVEMBER 13: Brandon Miller #14 of the Gardner Webb Runnin Bulldogs blocks out Kevarrius Hayes #13 of the Florida Gators during a NCAA basketball game at the Stephen C. O’ Connell Center on November 13, 2017 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images) /

Gardner-Webb

Seed: 16

Matchup: No. 1 Virginia

It’s obvious that the odds of Virginia going down in consecutive years to a No. 16 seed are -0.01 percent. However, if there was going to be a 16-seed team that can pull off the upset this year, it would likely be Gardner-Webb, based on a few important statistical reasons. And the Runnin Bulldogs just so happen to be going head-to-head with Virginia, which means an upset possibility could be in the cards.

This year’s Virginia squad is head-and-shoulders above the one we saw go down to UMBC last year, simply because of the emergence of DeAndre Hunter, who is likely to be a top-10 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft.

But, statistically speaking, the Bulldogs of Gardner-Webb are a better offensive team than UMBC was last season. Gardner-Webb currently ranks 65th in the nation in offensive efficiency, 12th in three point shooting percentage, 13th in field goal percentage, and 111th in adjusted offense according to KenPom.

While Virginia is a much better all-around team, Gardner-Webb, who will play in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history, has players who can flat out get buckets. They are led by two 1,000-point scorers in David Efianayi and DJ Laster, who both average over 13 points per game.

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The Bulldogs have two wins already this season against ACC opponents Wake Forest and Georgia Tech, neither of whom can hold Virginia’s jock straps, but that does help to show that Gardner-Webb is a proven team.

In all likelihood Virginia is going to have every incentive to come out and put it on the Bulldogs. But if lighting were to strike twice, it would happen in Columbia, South Carolina.

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