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Kentucky Derby 2019: Let’s break down what horse you should bet on

By Derek Simon

LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 03: A horse is hot walked in the paddock ahead of the 144th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3, 2018 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 03: A horse is hot walked in the paddock ahead of the 144th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 3, 2018 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) /
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LOUISVILLE, KY – MAY 04: Javier Castellano (center) atop Normandy Invasion leads the field as Joel Rosario atop Orb (far left) races from behind through the fourth turn to victory in the running of the 139th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images)
LOUISVILLE, KY – MAY 04: Javier Castellano (center) atop Normandy Invasion leads the field as Joel Rosario atop Orb (far left) races from behind through the fourth turn to victory in the running of the 139th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2013 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images) /

Improving LSRs

At one time, improving late speed rations was a huge factor for me, as numerous long shot winners, such as War Emblem ($43.00), Funny Cide ($27.60) and my personal favorite Giacomo ($102.60), showed this trait. However, with the advent of synthetic surfaces, the angle lost much of its pari-mutuel punch.

Now that most all-weather surfaces are a thing of the past, however, it’s worth looking out for these horses again — especially after Justify’s win last year. (The eventual Triple Crown champ recorded LSRs of -14, -11 and -2 in his three races prior to the Kentucky Derby.)

This year, there is a trio of qualified steeds, all hailing from the Florida Derby:

Courtesy of Allabouttherace
Courtesy of Allabouttherace /

The race is to the swift

Since the Brisnet speed figures were first introduced in 1992, only one horse — Mine That Bird (2009) — has managed to win the Derby without having recorded a BSF of at least 97 prior to the first Saturday in May. However, it’s worth noting only a couple of horses — Firenze Fire and Combatant — failed to meet this threshold in 2018. This year, by contrast, a dozen horses are potentially on the chopping block.

These include the highly regarded ROADSTER (95), along with CODE OF HONOR (92), WAR OF WILL (93), LONG RANGE TODDY (94), CUTTING HUMOR (96), COUNTRY HOME (92), MASTER FENCER (UK) and BODEXPRESS (95).

So, where does this leave us? Let’s take a look at the field in light of our analysis above.

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