Kentucky Derby 2019: Let’s break down what horse you should bet on

Kentucky Derby Pretenders

• Tacitus
• Plus Que Parfait
• By My Standards
• War of Will
• Long Range Toddy
• Tax
• Cutting Humor
• Win Win Win
• Country House
• Master Fencer
• Bodexpress

Kentucky Derby Contenders

• Vekoma
• Roadster
• Maximum Security
• Game Winner
• Code of Honor
• Improbable
• Gray Magician
• Spinoff

Of the remaining contenders, VEKOMA, MAXIMUM SECURITY, CODE OF HONOR, IMPROBABLE, GRAY MAGICIAN and SPINOFF look most interesting to me.

VEKOMA, who earned 110 Road to the Kentucky Derby points — the second-highest total in the race — has the best last-race early speed ration in the field, a factor which has produced a 109.6 percent ROI since 1992.

Undefeated horses are nine of 29 with a 12.2 percent ROI in the Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports — which certainly bodes well for MAXIMUM SECURITY, who is 4-for-4 lifetime and also sports improving LSRs.

On the downside, the son of 2013 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ New Year’s Day started his career in claiming company and has a full brother (Coastal Highway) who just finished sixth — at odds of 41-1 — in an optional claiming affair at Oaklawn Park.

There are several things I like about CODE OF HONOR. To begin with, he made a nice move on the turn in the Florida Derby, which is a powerful indicator of Kentucky Derby success. Since 1992, horses that gained at least two positions from the first call to the second call in their final prep have produced an 80.4 percent ROI in the Derby.

The son of Noble Mission also has improving LSRs and, perhaps most importantly, should offer great value this weekend.

Likewise, IMPROBABLE made a nice move around the final bend in the Arkansas Derby, although he failed to gain any ground on Omaha Beach in the run to the wire. The addition of blinkers last time is also a Kentucky Derby no-no, as horses that donned eyewear for the first time in any of their last three starts (including the Derby itself) are zero-for-49 over the past 27 years.

If you’re looking for a huge price on Derby Day, look no further than GRAY MAGICIAN. Horses that last raced in the UAE Derby (like this colt) are not only winless in 14 Kentucky Derby tries — they have yet to finish better than fifth. Still, this guy shows a couple things I really like.

For one, he passed horses on the turn in Dubai and, for two, he captured a route race in impressive fashion as juvenile. Over the past 27 years, horses that won a race of a mile or greater — at any class level — by at least five lengths at the age of two have produced a 12.1 percent win rate and a 73.6 percent ROI in the Run for the Roses.

Lastly, SPINOFF has shown a tremendous amount of versatility and is “flying under the radar” (as racing pundits like to say) for trainer Todd Pletcher.