2019 NBA Mock Draft: When simulating the lottery gets wonky

METAIRIE, LA - MARCH 14: David Griffin, Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations for the New Orleans Pelicans, talks to the media during an introductory press conference on April 17, 2019 at Ochsner Sports Performance Center in Metairie, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images)
METAIRIE, LA - MARCH 14: David Griffin, Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations for the New Orleans Pelicans, talks to the media during an introductory press conference on April 17, 2019 at Ochsner Sports Performance Center in Metairie, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2019 NBAE (Photo by Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE via Getty Images) /
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. F. Limoges. Sekou Doumbouya. 13. player. 110

The Miami Herald put together a useful player-by-player breakdown of the Heat roster last month that helps give us some insight into the direction the Heat will take adjusting their personnel this summer. Here’s the section on James Johnson, whose contract is pretty debilitating and who, at 32, is not trending alongside the young talent:

"“Johnson has yet to replicate the impressive stretch he put together at the end of 2016-17, which helped earn him his current four-year deal with the Heat. Whether it’s because of injuries or role or just a natural decline because of age, Johnson’s productivity has dipped as his athleticism and aggressiveness have also dropped off. The Heat hopes a full healthy offseason will help Johnson return to 2016-17 form. As far as Johnson’s trade value, it’s not very high right now.”"

It’s a similar story for Dion Waiters, whose physical conditioning the Heat believe has limited him since signing his own big contract in 2017:

"“Erik Spoelstra and Pat Riley made it clear Waiters must work on his body this offseason and report to training camp in September at a lower weight and body fat percentage. He just wasn’t in tip-top shape after returning from ankle surgery in January. That left him averaging a career-high 6.6 three-point shot attempts per game and fewer drives to the basket this past season. The Heat believes Waiters can be a difference maker if he’s in “world-class shape.” Waiters’ trade value is not very high right now.”"

Altogether, this paints the picture of a franchise whose rash decisions are coming back to haunt them. In 2017, the Heat got away from their core philosophies while signing aging players to bad contracts. Doumbouya is the type of energetic, improving athlete that fits their mold perfectly.