The Week In Stats: Wan-Bissaka and Serie A transfer targets

This week, we assess Manchester United target Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s numbers and cast our eye over the creative talent to be found at the bottom of Serie A.

Creating a stir

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at the attacking players from relegation-threatened sides who are likely to attract interest in the transfer market over the summer. As promised, here we’ll put the spotlight on the creators in Italy’s Serie A.

Only 23 Serie A players had a combined non-penalty expected goals (NPxG90) and expected assists (xA90) average of 0.5 or above per 90 minutes. And just one of them played for a club caught up in the relegation battle: Miha Zajc of Empoli.

Zajc was remarkable in neither metric alone, posting NPxG90 of 0.38 along with an xA90 of 0.21. Far more importantly, however, the 24-year-old Slovenian midfielder was already signed by Turkish giants Fenerbahce back in January.

Regarding the most common top-line assists metrics that help us identify effective creators – namely total xA, xA90 and total assists – just two players from the relegation-threatened/relegated teams feature in the top-30 for all three: Empoli’s Rade Krunic and Rodrigo de Paul of Udinese.

Krunic is a 25-year-old Bosnia international who’s been at Empoli since 2015. And when he isn’t setting up goals for his team-mates, he also occasionally does wonderful things like this:

https://twitter.com/BHlive_official/status/1097232675537121280

Somewhat unsurprisingly, he’s already been linked with moves to AC Milan and Udinese since the Serie A season ended in the last week in May.

Meanwhile, 24-year-old Argentine forward de Paul has already represented his country four times. He previously spent 18 months at Valencia from 2014-16, having been bought when current Wolves coach Nuno Espirito Santo took over at Mestalla in the summer of 2014, but de Paul then left the club during the tragicomic reign of the hapless Gary Neville.

His underlying numbers suggest that he might be very good indeed, as does this:

De Paul is reportedly a target for Inter Milan, although a move to Carlo Ancelotti’s Napoli, who finished this season second in the table, is apparently more likely.

Crystal clear

Staying with transfer targets, we’ll move on to the Premier League, where Crystal Palace right-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka has been attracting interest from both Manchester giants.

Just 18 months ago, Wan-Bissaka came very close to joining a fourth-tier English club on loan. But after remaining at Selhurst Park, he made his senior debut in February 2018 and went on to become one of this season’s break-out stars in England.

Crystal Palace fans voted the 21-year-old the club’s player of the season at the end of April – and looking at the chart below, it’s very easy to see why.

This graph compares Wan-Bissaka to all other full-backs in the big five European leagues – the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 – last season. In terms of a right- or left-back’s core defensive duties – tackle success rate, tackles won and times dribbled past per 90, and crosses blocked each game – he’s pretty much off the scale.

In effect, this means that he represents an almost-insurmountable barrier on the opposition’s left flank.

And even though he hasn’t been winning many aerial contests per 90, his aerial duel success rate ranks well above the 75th percentile, which is more than respectable. This strongly indicates that his below-average aerial numbers are due primarily to low volumes rather than a lack of quality.

Manchester City are also being strongly linked with Juventus’ Joao Cancelo, of course, whose attacking gifts perhaps make him a more obvious fit for Pep Guardiola’s side. But it’s clear that Wan-Bissaka would almost certainly improve Manchester United, where right-back was a problem position all season, with Antonio Valencia set to be released, Ashley Young now looking every one of his 33 years, Matteo Darmian seemingly not trusted and Diogo Dalot still very raw.