Fansided

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots:July 5 – They are Real, and They are Amazin!

By Brian Tulloch

Keith Hernandez and Jerry Seinfeld during Jerry Seinfeld Throws The First Pitch at The Mets/Yankees Subway Series Game to Promote The Release of the "Seinfeld" Season 4 DVD at Shea Stadium in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/WireImage)
Keith Hernandez and Jerry Seinfeld during Jerry Seinfeld Throws The First Pitch at The Mets/Yankees Subway Series Game to Promote The Release of the "Seinfeld" Season 4 DVD at Shea Stadium in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/WireImage) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
2 of 5
Next
MLB DFS
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JUNE 23: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 23, 2019 in New York City. The Astros defeated the Yankees 9-4. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Friday Pitching Breakdown:

When looking over this Friday MLB DFS slate, we have two clear elite arms at the top with Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom and what feels like a could end up being some chalky mid-range value that we can argue to avoid. With 8 teams sporting 5+ IRT’s here tonight, if folks want to pay up for bats I could see them paying down for mid-range arms like Eduardo Rodriquez against Detroit or Julio Teheran at home versus Miami.

However, I do think without a Coors Field type game on the slate, most will look to pay up at one pitching spot and I think based on match-up, it will likely be Jacob deGrom at home against the Phillies. The Phillies are a predominately right-handed heavy team which works in favor of deGrom who has a 33.9% K rate against RHB this season, substantially above his 25% K rate to LHB.

deGrom has always been a pitcher with strong home splits and this season is no different, sporting a massive 35.1% K rate against RHB in Citi Field and is one of only two arms on this slate with a 30% or higher K rate and 14% or higher swinging strike rate.

The other? Justin Verlander, who leads the slate with a 32% K rate on the year and a slate high 15.2% swinging strike rate but will have to face off with one of the lowest strikeout teams in baseball – the Angels. The Angels have a 17.7% K rate against RHP this season which makes them THE hardest team in baseball to strike out when facing a righty.

Now, the one thing we need to watch for is the line-up the Angels roll out as we already know Tommy La Stella and his 8% K rate is on the IL and Albert Pujols and his 11% K rate have been banged up the last few days which has forced him to the bench so we could see a few more high K bats in the line-up as a result – or at least not such massive contact bats.

My gut feeling on this slate is that most will go with deGrom as their SP1 with someone like E-Rod or Julio Teheran as a cheap SP2. While I understand the merit on E-Rod, guys please do not play Teheran – the regression has finally hit and he has been hammered in three straight starts. With that being said, will Verlander actually be a bit under-owned tonight?

All season long paying up for pitching has really been a losing battle, the Angles don’t K against RHP and you have to pay the most for him of any arm on the slate? You are paying for the name and the season long K metrics and while I understand the match-up is less than ideal – this could be a spot where we get an elite K arm at minimal ownership and we all know the ceiling JV has on any given night.

The reality is, over the last 30 days – Verlander and deGrom remain two of the best K arms in baseball, ranking 4th and 7th with 34.9% and 33.6% K rates – while the other arms on this slate like E-Rod (21%), Clayton Kershaw (20%) and Zack Greinke (19%) barely hit metrics we would even want to call out.

My point is this – there are two clear elite K arms on this slate and anytime that happens, I will make the argument (which to be fair has back-fired plenty this season) to go with two aces and find a cheap value stack to make it work – is that a route we can go tonight?