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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots:July 5 – They are Real, and They are Amazin!

By Brian Tulloch

Keith Hernandez and Jerry Seinfeld during Jerry Seinfeld Throws The First Pitch at The Mets/Yankees Subway Series Game to Promote The Release of the "Seinfeld" Season 4 DVD at Shea Stadium in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/WireImage)
Keith Hernandez and Jerry Seinfeld during Jerry Seinfeld Throws The First Pitch at The Mets/Yankees Subway Series Game to Promote The Release of the "Seinfeld" Season 4 DVD at Shea Stadium in New York City, New York, United States. (Photo by Stephen Lovekin/WireImage) /
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SEATTLE, WA – JULY 3: Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated by teammate Tyler O’Neill #41 after hitting a three-run home run off of relief pitcher Roenis Elias #55 of the Seattle Mariners that also scored O’Neill and Dexter Fowler #25 of the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth inning of a game at T-Mobile Park on July 3, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. The Cardinals won the game 5-2. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA – JULY 3: Tommy Edman #19 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated by teammate Tyler O’Neill #41 after hitting a three-run home run off of relief pitcher Roenis Elias #55 of the Seattle Mariners that also scored O’Neill and Dexter Fowler #25 of the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth inning of a game at T-Mobile Park on July 3, 2019 in Seattle, Washington. The Cardinals won the game 5-2. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats or did we find our SP2?:

Two nights ago I argued a double-barrel ace night with a cheap St. Louis Cardinals stack around Chris Sale and Walker Buehler and let me tell you – it bombed, big time – like really big time. Now, I am a huge believer in process over results and so tonight, with that in mind – I am stubbornly going to argue the same roster approach – building my roster around strikeout heavy arms and a cheap power stack.

The Cardinals have been a team that has certainly scuffled over recent weeks offensively, but you started to see signs of life in their three game set in Seattle, getting 9-10 hits in every single game, with 4 HR’s and a team .235 ISO mark.

Tonight, this right-handed heavy line-up with take on LHP Drew Pomeranz, a pitcher with a .253 ISO mark to RHB this season and despite their struggles – the Cardinals have 5 batters in their line-up with .200+ ISO marks against lefties this season including Tommy Edman, Jose Martinez, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader.

Now, this game is in San Francisco so you can come right back at me and point out that I want to stack one of the coldest offenses in baseball in arguably the best pitching park on the slate – and that is very, very fair. The truth is Pomeranz has been good – very good at home recently – putting up 20+ fantasy points now in each of his last four home starts against the Rockies, Arizona, Brewers and Dodgers – so you could even argue that as a cheap SP2 at $13.6K he is in play.

So, what you are faced with is which set of stats do you believe? Are the Cardinals a cheap power stack that has strong advanced metrics against LHP or is Pomeranz and his 30.9% K rate over the last month actually a pivot play off the E-Rod/Teheran potential chalk?

In those last 5 starts, Pomeranz has a 30% plus K rate and double-digit swinging strike rate and considering the opponents and his rate of success it is hard not to view him as a viable SP2 pivot here tonight. The only caveat – Pomeranz is running a consistently high pitch count, getting to 90-100 pitches in each of his last five starts but working deep into counts which has meant he has not gone past 5 innings in a single one of those outings. If you want to prioritize bats – then I would lean towards using Pomeranz as seemingly too cheap SP2 tonight.