Fantasy Football Draft: 2019 studs, sleepers and busts
Quarterback – Busts
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks – ADP of 80th overall, QB9
Let me start this off by saying Wilson is a top five quarterback in the NFL. He’s going to be an MVP candidate in my mind because the offense around him isn’t the greatest unit in the league.
However, that’s a double-edged sword because he’s not going to be as good for fantasy for precisely those reasons.
Wilson managed a top 10 finish last year even though the Seahawks finished 32nd in passing attempts and Wilson(naturally) had the fewest attempts of any quarterback that started 16 games. So, how did he squeeze a top 10 season? Touchdowns, plain and simple.
His touchdown rate was through the roof last year at 8.2 percent. That bumped his career number to 6%, so he was basically 33 percent higher than his career average.
For added perspective, let’s look at some of the greats in the league right now. Aaron Rodgers is at 6.2 percent, Drew Brees is at 5.3 percent and Tom Brady is at 5.5 percent. Wilson is insanely talented but he’s simply not that much better. Regression is more than due.
Now let’s add in the fact that his best receiver and security blanket in Doug Baldwin has retired due to injury. DK Metcalf may well be an alpha receiver at some point in his career, but the odds of doing it as a rookie are a little bit long.
Tyler Lockett is coming off a big year that accumulated 10 touchdowns and almost 1,000 yards and will have even more weight on his shoulders now. Even if Lockett can repeat or be better than 2018(I think he does), Wilson still has to overcome perhaps the largest obstacle in his offense – his offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
Schottenheimer has been an OC in 10 seasons and his passing offenses have never finished above 13th in attempts(6 seasons under 20th), 16th in yards and has exactly 2 years inside the top 10 for passing touchdowns.
One of those seasons came last year with Wilson throwing 35. I’m not attaching myself to a quarterback that has this kind of track record from the OC, regardless of how great the quarterback is in real life.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints – ADP of 79th overall, QB7
Another unpopular choice but if you’ve been around fantasy circles for any amount of time, one narrative(somewhat true) with a quarterback like Ben Roethlisberger is you can’t play him on the road and he can only be started at Heinz Field. If you buy into that, you shouldn’t want any part of Drew Brees this year. Let’s just compare side but side for 2018 for the veteran signal caller –
Home – 76 percent completion rate, 321 yards per game, 21 touchdowns, 1 interception
Road – 72 percent completion rate, 217 yards per game, 11 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
The Saints are on the road in Weeks 13 and 16 this season, meaning the odds could be fairly solid that you get a dud when you need a big game the absolute most. There is another interesting tidbit here that makes me wonder about Brees.
New Orleans finished just 23rd in passing attempts last year and unsurprisingly, Brees was quite efficient. There also seemed to be a marked difference when Mark Ingram came back into this offense after a suspension.
After Ingram came back, Brees topped 35 attempts just twice and they came in shootouts versus the Rams and Steelers. He also had six games with 2 touchdowns or fewer and 6 with 250 yards or fewer as well.11 of the 35 touchdowns for Brees came in the first five weeks.
Including the 5th week with Ingram seems prudent because Brees was at home on Monday night and shooting for the passing yardage record.
As Brees continues to get a little older, the Saints are using the run game more and more. His overall finish was a little deceiving with what you got score-wise week to week and I will pass on Brees this year.
Other Fantasy Football Draft Avoids – Jared Goff, Rams – Tom Brady, Patriots – Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs simply because I don’t normally sink draft capital at quarterback unless it’s 2QB or Superflex