Fantasy Football Draft: 2019 studs, sleepers and busts
Quarterback – Sleepers
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – ADP of 103rd overall, QB15
I’m the first to admit that I’m stretching the boundaries of a “Sleeper” since he’s going as a top 15 player at his position. The ADP is likely to climb even higher after he makes a splash play or two in the preseason.
I think Murray finishes as a top eight quarterback this year with Arizona’s new offensive philosophy under Kliff Kingsbury. Every single offense he ran in the NCAA averaged more than 500 yards and over 40 points.
His quarterbacks always averaged over 55 passing/rushing attempts put together. Murray racked up over 1,000 yards rushing last year at Oklahoma and the Cards offense is lined up to be very explosive.
Now, all these stats aren’t predictive of NFL success and they aren’t going to just carry over, either. Still, Kingsbury is bringing a quarterback-centric system, and Murray as the coveted cheat code for quarterbacks – rushing yards.
Three quarterbacks topped 500 rushing yards last year in Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. All of these players finished inside the top 30, and none of them started all 16 games.
Allen started 12 and finished 21st with a comparable points per game to Tom Brady, and Jackson only attempted 170 passes. Murray has a much better offense around him with plenty of talent in the receiving corps. I’m very excited to see what Murray does this year.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys – ADP of 108th, QB18
In some respects, I understand Prescott being so far back in the draft. He’s a quarterback who has yet to eclipse 3,900 yards or throw for 25 touchdowns in any one season. Yet, even in six point passing touchdown formats, he’s finished 6th, 12th and 14th in his three seasons.
A huge boost to his value is the rushing production with at least 282 ground yards and six rushing touchdowns every single year. His passing attempts have risen each year and now he has a full off-season with receiver Amari Cooper. Rookie receiver Michael Gallup also showed flashes towards the end of the season, including a monster playoff performance with an 8/137/1 line.
Make no mistake, running back Ezekiel Elliot is going to be the featured component of this offense. That’s perfectly fine as it helps make a play action passing game even more effective since the defense has to worry about Zeke.
Per Pro Football Focus, Prescott ranks 6th in points per drop back among 32 qualified passers despite being 25th in drop backs. Now he might get a brand new offense to accentuate his strengths for possibly the first time in his Dallas tenure.
.@danorlovsky7 on what the 2019 Cowboys offense could look like with Kellen Moore calling plays:
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 30, 2019
“I think it’s going to be an offense that is like Sean Payton married with Matt Nagy married with Mike Leach. Like they all had a baby and that’s what this offense is going to be."
Prescott is well worth an investment after some of the bigger names are off the board with more sizzle. All Prescott has ever done is bring the steak and he allows you to load up at other positions while still taking a QB1.
Other Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers – Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears – Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers – Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings