Fantasy Football Draft: 2019 studs, sleepers and busts
Running Back – Busts
Le’Veon Bell, New York Jets – ADP of 8th overall, RB7
People might accuse me of being a salty Steelers fan but I’m really not.
*Editor’s note – he really is. Super Salty.
Bell used what options he had available to him to try to maximize his money. I’m not 100 percent sure that he achieved that, but James Conner was a perfectly fine back for the Steelers last year. Anyways, it certainly feels like everyone is drafting Bell on the absolute best case scenario. I would bet against that happening in 2019.
Let’s just put aside the rumors that head coach Adam Gase may not have wanted to sign Bell in the first place. It’s simply that, a rumor that we have no idea if it’s true. Gase still has had bumps in the road handling running backs in the past.
He shipped Jay Ajayi to the Philadelphia Eagles one season after he ran for 1,272 yards in just 12 starts. Last year, he split the workload between Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore basically right down to middle for total touches, 173 – 168 in favor of Drake.
I would very much hope that those types of shenanigans aren’t going to be the normal with Bell in the fold, but I wouldn’t put it past Gase or be shocked to see Bilal Powell or Elijah McGuire get enough touches to frustrate an owner taking Bell this early.
We also have to acknowledge that the offense is far different from the one Bell just departed. He sees a significant downgrade at every turn, including offensive line. Pro Football Focus has the Jets as a bottom 5 unit in the league entering this season.
Yes, they are not the be all, end all but their opinion certainly carries weight. Bell also has a very different style of running than a lot of other backs. He pitter-patters around, not just hits a hole and goes. This could lead to a learning curve.
When we add all the factors and understand that Bell has been away from football for a year, I’m not sinking a top 10 pick on him. There’s at least five backs going behind him I prefer in James Conner, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb and Damien Williams. Picking a dud that early can sink your team before the season hits Week 8.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans – ADP of 30th overall, RB17
This ADP feels like people have only remembered what happened on the Thursday Night Football game in Week 14 since it was on an island and what came after that. That night was something special, without a doubt. Henry went OFF for 238 rushing yards and four touchdowns on just 17 carries.
He followed that up with a 170 yard performance against the Giants the following week. Those games are notable since they’re only two of the four games Henry went over 60 yards on the ground all season.
Before his big game, Henry had five games with single digit carries and under 60 yards in every single one. He was on a lot of waiver wires that Thursday night. The RB14 finish in 2018 might be one of the more deceiving finishes I’ve seen in a long time.
The Titans are once again under a new offensive coordinator and Arthur Smith has been in Tennessee since the 2011 season but has never called plays at this level before. That’s not exactly what I prefer, but it’s not a deterrent in and of itself.
It’s just another knock against Henry and I’m having a very hard time sinking this high of a pick of a four game resume. In three seasons, Henry has four games over 100 yards rushing and just three more over 80 yards.
Considering he has a grand total of 39 receptions over 47 career games, I simply won’t risk this pick. If Henry rolls up near 1,100 yards again I’d happily admit I’m wrong but he won’t be on my teams this year. Every time someone else takes him, I breathe a sigh of relief because someone else I want is one pick closer to mine.
Other Fantasy Football Draft Avoids – Sony Michel, New England Patriots – Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders – Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos