Fantasy Football Draft: 2019 studs, sleepers and busts

Wide Receiver – Busts

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots – ADP of 39th, WR15 

I’m not here to say that Edelman isn’t going to be productive. Quite the opposite, in fact since Rob Gronkowski and his 72 targets are gone. Out the door as well is Chris Hogan and his 55 targets and Josh Gordon is very much up in the air with his status.

I really wonder if the Patriots continue to be in the top half of the league in passing attempts as Tom Brady gets a little older. Edelman did play every game he was available for last season, which made it only the third time in his nine year career he’s been out there for every game.

Considering Edelman will turn 33 years old and has a lengthy injury history, it’s hard to not believe that you could get bit at some point this year. Injuries are prevalent no matter what but I don’t want to go seeking it out either.

New England finished 3rd in rushing attempts last year and 4th in rushing touchdowns. Yes, the Patriots were 8th in passing attempts and 3rd in rushing attempts because they were second in plays per game. I don’t think that’s going the other way with Brady and if Edelman plays 14 games or more, this pick looks foolish. I will always find someone else I like more in this range.

Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions – ADP of 43rd overall, WR17 

I like Golladay quite a bit and he had a mini breakout season with 1,063 yards and 70 receptions last year. There’s no denying the talent but I really feel like he’s going too early this season. After Golden Tate was traded, Golladay averaged a little over nine targets.

However, he was also missing a key component to the receiving corps in Marvin Jones after just two more games, since Jones was put on IR. While Gollady made the most of his opportunity, the likelihood of seeing more targets is slim and his share could go down a little bit.

In 2018, the target share did favor Golladay at 22 percent to 19 percent with Jones. However, Jones held a significant edge in aDOT at 14.6 yards to 12.9 for Golladay. Jones also saw 11 red zone targets to 16 for Golladay in six fewer games.

Lastly, Jones held the edge in points per game in .5PPR at 12.8 to 11.5. Golladay is going 43rd overall while Jones is all the way down at 100th over and is the 37th WR off the board. Based on the stats available to us, that gap shouldn’t be nearly that large and I’m happy to target other players in Golladay’s range and take Jones later. He’s a great sleeper candidate.

Other Fantasy Football Draft Avoids – Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys – Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers