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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 12 – TGIF: Thank God It’s Fri-Ray

By Brian Tulloch

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 14: Robbie Ray #38 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park on June 14, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 14: Robbie Ray #38 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park on June 14, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
WASHINGTON, DC – JUNE 14: Robbie Ray #38 of the Arizona Diamondbacks pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park on June 14, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Friday Pitching Breakdown:

We are back with the first slate from break and our friends at FantasyDraft once again have hooked us up with a $400 FREE ROLL to help us start off with some bankroll padding.

Looking at the pitching on Friday’s slate there is one clear-cut ace at the top with Gerrit Cole ($22K) who takes his slate leading 36.7% K rate to the mound against a high strikeout opponent in the Texas Rangers. Over the last month, Cole has seen his K rate drop to 31.8%, however that is still good enough to rank inside the top 10 in all of baseball.

Cole has faced the Rangers three times this season, once in Houston where he had by far his best outing – a 6 inning, 12 K performance for 37 fantasy points but in both road starts in Texas he has failed to produce ceiling type games – going for 21 and 3 fantasy points, giving up 11 runs despite striking out 8/9 batters in those two starts.

Over the last month, no team in baseball has a higher K rate than the Rangers at 28.3%, while the Texas projected line-up has a 25% K rate against RHP, so there is clear K upside here for Cole if you are willing to stomach the $20K plus price tag.

There are two high K pivots at value price points however that I think make for a viable pairing on two pitcher sites – Robbie Ray ($15.3K) and Danny Duffy ($13.5K).

Ray has put up a 31.1%K rate over the last month, good for 9th in the league during that time and just one spot behind the significantly higher priced Cole. What really stands out for Ray the last month is the swinging strike rate which is just under 15%, again a top 10 mark in the league during that time and the highest mark of any pitcher on Friday’s slate.

Ray has put up 20+ fantasy points in five of his last seven outings and his opponent, the St. Louis Cardinals, have allowed opposing starting pitchers to put up 20+ fantasy points in 10 of the last 25 games against them.

Duffy is likely going to be a popular SP2 option considering his match-up against the Tigers, but it is hard to argue with the K upside as one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate. Detroit is striking out at a 25.6% clip over the last month which is the second highest mark in baseball (behind Texas) and this is a match-up that Duffy has already excelled in this season. Duffy faced the Tigers back on June 12, going 7 innings, striking out 7 and racking up 22 fantasy points.

While the Ray/Duffy combination can certainly be volatile, both pitchers have clear 20+ fantasy point upside and the salary relief they offer will give you nearly $9K per batter on FantasyDraft, which means you can build a stacking hitting lineup that those who pay up for Cole will not be able to afford.