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MLB DFS Pitching Gems Of The Day July 12: Welcome Back With Gerrit Cole

By Brandon Lauderback

ST. PETERSBURG, FL - MARCH 29: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros throws in the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on March 29, 2019 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images)
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - MARCH 29: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros throws in the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on March 29, 2019 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images) /
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CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 19: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 19, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – JUNE 19: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 19, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Plays

Gerrit Cole – We get Cole at a price all by himself. Pitching in the intense heat of Texas is no easy task, however, Cole is not your average pitcher. With an xFIP of 2.47, 36.4% K rate, 41.9% GB rate, and a 36% HC rate, he will have some massive upside in this spot. The projected lineup for Texas, has five lefties, and three righties. With this lineup having a combined 25% K rate, and 41.8% GB. This is important because Cole gets a 5% strikeout boost to LHH all the way up to 39.3%. The issue is that players like Gallo, Odor, and Choo all have big power against RHP. Cole gives up way more fly-balls, at a 42.2% rate, and more HC at 39.7% against LHH, compared to RHH.

Pitch Mix – Cole uses his fastball the most, followed by the slider, and curve, mixing in the occasional change for LHH. The whiffs on his Fastball have been consistently higher than last year, especially to LHH where it has been getting around 40-50% whiffs. The slider has also been getting between 30-40% whiffs. The problem becomes when his fastball gets hit, it usually is put in the air, and has at times been hit pretty hard.

The curve has had a very high ISO all year against it, with the slider generating the most GB out of all his pitches. Cole has kept his velocity on the fastball above 97 MPH all year long, with the slider occasionally reaching above 90 MPH. The reason his fastball gets so many whiffs is because it not only reaches 97 MPH on average, but it moves 10 inches vertically. He has the best fastball in the entire league, and Texas really struggles to hit his fastball, so I would expect a really big performance in this match-up.