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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Saturday, July 13 – Ride the Rays, Morton + McKay

By Dan Palyo

CLEVELAND, OHIO - MAY 25: Starting pitcher Charlie Morton #50 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on May 25, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
CLEVELAND, OHIO - MAY 25: Starting pitcher Charlie Morton #50 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field on May 25, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /
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BALTIMORE, MD – MAY 08: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) walks in from the dugout prior to the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles on May 8, 2019, at Orioles Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MD – MAY 08: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) walks in from the dugout prior to the game between the Boston Red Sox and the Baltimore Orioles on May 8, 2019, at Orioles Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Top GPP Pivot

Chris Sale (10.7k FD, 10.5k DK) vs. L.A. Dodgers

Sale is having what qualifies as a down year for him by his standards. He’s 3-8 with an ERA just over 4, but his advanced statistics suggest he’s been better than most fans realize. I actually got into a Twitter argument recently with some Red Sox fans who were arguing they’d rather see David Price start the Wild Card game than Chris Sale if the Sox ended up in those circumstances. That was baffling to me and speaks volumes to how much the average fan still looks at surface numbers like wins and ERA.

Sale is still striking out hitters at a 34% clip this season and there are several indicators that he’s due for some “positive regression” or “progression,” if you will. His LOB% (left-on-base percentage) is at a career-low of 69%, meaning the baserunners he does allow are scoring more often than they normally do. Some might say that’s his fault, but most of the time it’s really just a combination of bad luck. Opposing teams are going to have timely hits against him that often. His BABIP is sitting at .307 which is slightly above the league average but his HR/FB% is way up there at a career-high of 16.8%. He’s given up 16 homers, which is five more than he allowed all of last year. I suspect that rate will normalize to around 10-12% here in the second half.

There are no current indicators that Chris Sale is “broken” as I’ve heard some suggest. His velocity is back up in the mid-’90s and before his last two starts, he had reeled off an impressive stretch in which he looked unhittable. Tonight he faces a tough opponent in the Dodgers, but also a team that just whiffed 10 times against his fellow left-handed teammate Eduardo Rodriguez last night. I’ll take a chance on one of the best pitchers in baseball at home, especially if I think that his ownership will be lower than it should be due to the number of quality other arms available on this slate.