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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 14 – A deLightful fish fry

By Brian Tulloch

MIAMI, FL - APRIL 03: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets runs the bases after hitting a solo homerun in the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
MIAMI, FL - APRIL 03: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets runs the bases after hitting a solo homerun in the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
MIAMI, FL – APRIL 03: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets runs the bases after hitting a solo homerun in the second inning against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 3, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Sunday Slate Pitching:

At first glance looking at this Sunday MLB DFS slate, we have a loaded pitching player pool at the top, with an underwhelming value/mid-tier while offensively we have 6 teams with IRT’s over 5 and no chalky Coors Field to deal with.

Justin Verlander ($23.2K) is the highest priced arm on the slate with an elite K rate and a match-up against a Rangers team that he has put up 30+ fantasy points against in each of his last two starts. Verlander is a massive -215 road favorite however in a game with a 10+ run total in Arlington, there is certainly reason to think twice about this price point.

Verlander over the last month has seen his K rate drop to 26.7% and he has only surpassed the 30 fantasy point mark in two of his last seven starts. While the K rate and fantasy production has dropped a bit from his season-long numbers, the fact he still has a 15% swinging-strike rate in that time tells you the upside is still there for JV.

If we are looking at the last 30 days, Shane Bieber ($20.6K) would actually seem like the better play at the top with a swinging-strike rate of 15.2% and a K rate of 35.7% which both rank top 10 in the league during that time. The Biebs has gone for 30+ in 3 of his last 5 starts but let’s not overlook the opponents in those games – Detroit, Baltimore and the Reds – who are a far cry from the dangerous Twins offense today.

Jacob deGrom ($21.6K) is essentially the middle ground argument between Verlander and Bieber as he has the high K metrics, recent form and the best match-up of any of the aces in Miami against the Marlins. deGrom has a 33% K rate and 16.2% swinging strike rate over the last month which ranks top 10 in baseball and now gets a light-hitting Marlins team in the spacious Miami ballpark.

Game log watchers have an interesting dilemma as the last time Jake was in this “can’t miss spot” – well he missed, badly. deGOAT was roughed up for 6 runs in 5 innings on his way to a season-low -0.15 fantasy points. I could actually see his opponent, Sandy Alcantara gaining traction as the top SP2 play here based off his last outing against the Mets in Miami where he went for 43 fantasy points on the back of 9 K’s in a complete-game shutout.

My gut tells me that Verlander/Bieber with Alcantara will be a popular build on a slate with an ugly mid-tier of arms so going with deGrom could make for interesting leverage on the Alcantara ownership.