FanDuel MLB DFS Breakdown – 7/15: Lock in Lucas Giolito
By Joe Metz
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitchers
Top Play: Lucas Giolito | CWS | $9,100
When you have one of the AL Cy Young candidates priced this low, you have to take them into consideration. With that said, Giolito’s numbers this season have been down-right elite. His 3.84 xFIP and 30.3% strikeout rate are both career-bests and he’s limited opponents to a 29.0% hard-contact rate while holding a 14.6% whiff rate.
These are all signs that his Cy Young candidacy is legitimate and that should terrify the Royals, who have been a mediocre offense at best. They strike out at a 22.1% clip against righties with a mediocre 0.320 wOBA. On top of that, Giolito throws his slider second-most behind his fastball. Against sliders specifically, the projected KCR lineup only has two players with a wOBA over 0.300 against the SL and only one with a whiff rate below 29%.
He providers arguably the highest floor and ceiling combination on the slate, and that’s not something you typically find for a player this inexpensive. Lock and load.
Value Play: Joe Musgrove | PIT | $8,300
I see no reason to dip below Giolito on FanDuel, but if you really insist, I think Joe Musgrove makes for an interesting value play in tournaments. The Cardinals offense has been anemic lately and frankly, for the majority of the season, as they’re only posting a 0.316 wOBA and 0.134 ISO against righties.
While Musgrove’s 19.9% strikeout rate leaves something to be desired, the Cardinals 23.6% strikeout rate against righties should slightly heighten that ceiling. On top of that, he’s dominated control to the tune of a 5.5% walk rate and has also kept the ball on the ground (44.6%). There’s a level of risk here, but if you’re adamant on saving some extra funds, Musgrove is the safest (take that with a grain of salt) value option.
Honorable Mention(s): James Paxton, Adam Plutko