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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, July 15 – Play Paxton in Pinstripes

By Dan Palyo

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 03: Pitcher James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees throws in an MLB baseball game against the Minnesota Twins on May 3, 2019 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. Yankees won 6-3. (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 03: Pitcher James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees throws in an MLB baseball game against the Minnesota Twins on May 3, 2019 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. Yankees won 6-3. (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 21: Austin Romine #28, James Paxton #65 and Tyler Wade #14 of the New York Yankees convene on the mound during the seventh inning of the game against the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium on April 21, 2019, in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 21: Austin Romine #28, James Paxton #65 and Tyler Wade #14 of the New York Yankees convene on the mound during the seventh inning of the game against the Kansas City Royals at Yankee Stadium on April 21, 2019, in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cash Game Ace

James Paxton (9k FD, 8.9k DK) vs. Tampa

Paxton appears to be back in good form other than one fluky bad start against the Blue Jays in late June. He just faced this Tampa team on the road right before the break and struck out 11 Rays in six innings while allowing two runs (both in the first inning). The Rays bats have been hot coming out of the break, but then again they got to feast on the worst pitching staff in baseball in Baltimore over the weekend.

Paxton is the cheapest of the upper-tier pitchers tonight and I think the best bang for your buck. While using him in New York makes me a tad nervous since he has a fly ball tendency that can lead to home runs, he still has a solid floor with his ability to rack up strikeouts. His 29% K rate is third-best only behind Snell and Giolito on the slate. The Rays, meanwhile, hold the fourth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at 25.9%.

If we had a safer ace on this slate, I’d say reserve Paxton for tourneys, but his price is really attractive on this slate since Coors’ bats are going to likely be a priority. Take the savings on Paxton over Kershaw and Castillo, who both have tougher matchups on the road.