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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, July 15 – Play Paxton in Pinstripes

By Dan Palyo

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 03: Pitcher James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees throws in an MLB baseball game against the Minnesota Twins on May 3, 2019 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. Yankees won 6-3. (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 03: Pitcher James Paxton #65 of the New York Yankees throws in an MLB baseball game against the Minnesota Twins on May 3, 2019 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx borough of New York City. Yankees won 6-3. (Photo by Paul Bereswill/Getty Images) /
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CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 07: Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the third inning during the game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 07, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 07: Kyle Hendricks #28 of the Chicago Cubs pitches in the third inning during the game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 07, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Another GPP Pivot

Kyle Hendricks (8.7k FD, 9.5k DK) vs. Cincinnati

I’ll be completely honest with you, this is the first time I think I have written up Hendricks since I started writing about DFS three years ago. And for full disclosure, this is also the first time I typed “Cincinnati” without Grammarly immediately turning it red and mocking my inability to spell that city. It’s the middle of the night, too! Maybe my brain spells better when fatigued?

Anyway, back to baseball, please! Hendricks is usually a guy I avoid because he’s not a strikeout pitcher and always relied on ground balls and soft contact over his career in order to get hitters out. He’s completely boring and someone who can get hit hard when he’s not locating his pitches. However, my disdain for Hendricks over the years is probably not totally deserved. The guy eats innings and puts together many more effective starts than bad ones. This year, he was pitching extremely well before a stint on the IL in the second half of June.

This is the perfect spot to deploy Hendricks tonight even if he does seem a tad overpriced. Despite only throwing in the high 80’s with his 2-seam fastball, Hendricks has great movement with that pitch. He throws a change-up and a curveball that also have a lot of downward movement. This is huge tonight because he’s facing the Reds in their first game back at normal elevation. The phenomenon known as the “Coors effect” is in play tonight, and refers to the trouble that hitters have readjusting to how much movement pitches have at normal elevation compared to the lack of movement they have in Denver’s high altitude.

Hendricks struck out 10 Rockies in the exact same scenario back in early June. He faced them in their first game on the road after a home stand and even the Rockies hitters, who have to adjust constantly showed they are vulnerable. This is a sneaky spot for Hendricks as many will look at his game log and then see winds blowing out in Wrigley and totally ignore him. But I think he has the potential to put up a big score at low ownership.