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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 16 – A Spark-Lynn slate!

By Brian Tulloch

ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JUNE 28: Lance Lynn #35 of the Texas Rangers pitches during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on June 28, 2019 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - JUNE 28: Lance Lynn #35 of the Texas Rangers pitches during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on June 28, 2019 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – JUNE 28: Lance Lynn #35 of the Texas Rangers pitches during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on June 28, 2019 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:

At first glance when you look at Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate, it looks and feels a lot like Monday in that Coors Field will dominate the discussion but while we had some high-end name-value arms yesterday, we certainly seem to lack that tonight.

Digging deeper though, I actually think we have some viable routes as we have three arms on this slate with top 20 K rates across Major League Baseball over the last month – Lance Lynn, Michael Pineda and Brandon Woodruff – who are all sporting 28-29% rates over the last 30 days.

Lynn ($21.3K) may be sitting at a price point that most will balk at but let’s be clear, the recent performance certainly supports it, as he has a 28.9% K rate and a 12.6% swinging-strike rate which are both top 25 marks in the league over the last month. Lynn has gone at least 7 innings in each of his last 5 starts, wit double-digit K’s in 2 of his last 3 games and 30+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 5.

Lynn actually faced this same Arizona team way back in April where he struck out 9 batters and put up 29.3 fantasy points. I know it is hard to pay this price for Lance flippin’ Lynn but the reality is, the Rangers right-hander has become an elite K arm this season with 8 or more K’s in 7 of his last 10 trips to the mound.

Now paying up for Lynn may seem sub-optimal considering the bats we want to jam in (more on that in a moment) but there is a potential high-low path here that I think we can consider as we can go with Lynn at the top and Glenn Sparkman ($8.2K) all the way at the bottom.

Sparkman is the cheapest pitcher on the entire FantasyDraft slate, a rare true starting pitcher (non-opener) who has gone 90+ pitches in 3 of his last 4 games who we are getting at the same price point as hitters like Brandon Dixon or Gio Urshela.

Now, let’s be clear, Sparkles is not the ideal play – also, I am not sure his nickname is Sparkles but let’s roll with it while my coffee kicks in. Did we all see what Jakob Junis did to this White Sox team last night – striking out 10 on his way to 33 fantasy points?

The White Sox projected line-up has a 25.6% K rate against RHP this season and their 25% K rate over the last 30 days ranks top 5 in baseball. In fact, over the last two weeks, 4 of the 9 pitchers to face this White Sox team have gone for 23+ fantasy points including powerhouse names like Junis, Matt Boyd, Chris Bassit and Mike Fiers – heck even Jon Lester managed to not be awful and get 17 fantasy points.

The reality is, 8 of the last 9 starting pitchers to face the White Sox have gone for double-digit points and THAT is really all we are asking out of old Mr. Sparkles here today (solid Simpons pull by the way).

You will notice, I have not given you a single reason to play the actual pitcher here and have solely argued to attack the opponent and well, that will happen when a guy has a 12% K rate. The reality is, you are playing the price and the opponent here – if Sparkman was actually someone we wanted to roster he would cost more than an opener here tonight. If you want Lynn and a path to Coors bats – well my friends, get ready to shine with Mr. Sparkle.

OK I need more coffee.