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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 17: Wish that I had Jesse’s Girl

By Brian Tulloch

ST. PETERSBURG, FL - JUN 30: Jesse Chavez (53) of the Rangers delivers a pitch to the plate during the MLB regular season game between the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays on June 30, 2019, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ST. PETERSBURG, FL - JUN 30: Jesse Chavez (53) of the Rangers delivers a pitch to the plate during the MLB regular season game between the Texas Rangers and the Tampa Bay Rays on June 30, 2019, at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
PHILADELPHIA, PA – JULY 15: Cody Bellinger #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the seventh inning of a baseball game at Citizens Bank Park on July 15, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:

The Dodgers are clearly enjoying hitting in Philadelphia, scoring 16 and 8 runs the last two games with 9 HR’s launched and today with Nick Pivetta on the mound, I am going right back to this LA stack for the third day in a row.

Pivetta is giving up a .248 ISO mark to hitters from both sides of the plate this season with nearly identical FB and HC rates and has surrendered 2 or more HR’s now in 4 of his last 5 games. Pivetta relies heavily on his curveball, throwing it roughly 30% of the time to hitters on both sides of the plate and batters like Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and Corey Seager all have .200+ ISO marks against that pitch type.

Against RHP since the start of 2018, this Dodgers line-up is just loaded with power, with 5 of their 8 projected batters sporting .200+ ISO marks and with hot temperatures and 10 MPH winds blowing out, well, this could be another home run derby for the Dodgers bats here tonight.

I will say this – looking at the weather – there are thunderstorm risks here in Philadelphia as well as New York and Boston so we need to be wary of that simply setting and forgetting our lineups here tonight.

The Red Sox and Nationals have the two highest IRT’s on the slate with the Red Sox pushing near 7 runs as of this writing and what you will notice with both teams is that the pricing is exceptionally high. Now, if you go with a value pitching build, you can really get your choice of the premium bats here – Mookie, JD, Devers, Soto and Rendon etc – with the idea that these are the high-priced bats that those who pay for pitching simply cannot afford.

Juan Soto is probably my favorite one-off play here today against RHP Aaron Brooks. who is giving up a .252 ISO mark to LHB this season with a heavy reliance on his sinker. Well, against that pitch type Soto has a .298 ISO, with a 319 average distance traveled, and with all the salary room we have to play with, makes for an elite one-off play here tonight.