Three Up, Three Down: MLB DFS Overview for Sat. July 20- Evening Slate

Three Down for Saturday, July 20- Evening Slate 

Pitcher to Fade

Jakob Junis, KCR at CLE:

As already alluded to in Lindor’s entry, Junis doesn’t exactly have the most stellar metrics against left-handed hitters on the road. And, righty bats have hit him just as much. Junis is surrendering a .367 wOBA and 39.9 percent hard-contact rate overall across 51.1 road frames. He’s also struggled considerably against several other Cleveland bats besides Lindor.

Overall, current Indians hitters have a collective .356/.407/.577 line against Junis in a sample of 104 at-bats. That includes 13 extra-base hits (eight doubles, five home runs) and 20 RBI. Cleveland also went into Friday night’s action with a .352 wOBA against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month, furthering the case to avoid Junis on Saturday.

Hitter to Fade

Starlin Castro, MIA at LAD:

Castro has been running hot recently, but Saturday, he runs into some personal kryptonite in the form of Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw. Castro owns an .074/.107/.074 line across 28 career plate appearances versus Kershaw. That includes eight strikeouts and just a pair of singles

Castro has actually been very good against left-handed pitching this season, but Kershaw owns a .276 wOBA and a 24.1 percent strikeout rate versus right-handed hitters at home. He’s elicited an elevated 51.1 percent groundball rate from righty bats at Dodger Stadium, and Castro also owns an abysmal .217 wOBA and .050 ISO  versus the slider that qualifies as Kershaw’s most-often thrown pitch against right-handed hitters.

Stack to Fade

Brewers at ARI (RHP Zack Greinke):

Greinke has a 3.00 ERA and stellar .259 wOBA over 60 home innings, and he’s held current Brewers hitters to a .221/.269/.369 line over 122 career at-bats. He’s been especially impressive against some of the Brew Crew’s most potent bats, holding Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas and Eric Thames to a combined 10-for-48 tally with zero home runs.

Milwaukee also has a lackluster track record versus right-handed pitching on the road recently. They went into Friday night’s action with an unsightly .197 average, .283 wOBA and 73 wRC+ against that handedness over the last month of play.

Greinke has largely been immune to blowups this season. He was touched up by his old Dodgers teammates for seven earned runs on Opening Night, and he’s also given up five earned runs on two occasions. However, Greinke has surrendered three earned runs or less in 15 of 20 starts, including eight of nine home turns.

Given that Greinke also has a 10.4 K/9 and 2.35 xFIP over his first two starts of July, I see the chances of the expensive Brewers being worth the investment Saturday as slim.