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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 21 – Stop and Snell the White Sox

By Brian Tulloch

BOSTON, MA - JUNE 09: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 9, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - JUNE 09: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 9, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
BOSTON, MA – JUNE 09: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 9, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Sunday Pitching Breakdown:

Looking at this slate at first glance, we have a handful of strong top-tier arms with significant K potential and any time a slate takes that context, I will argue for a build where we focus on double-barrel aces and find out value stacks on FantasyDraft to make it all work.

Blake Snell ($21.3K) is the most expensive arm on the slate as he gets an elite home match-up against the K happy White Sox and Vegas seems to agree as he is the largest favorite (-270) while Chicago has the lowest IRT on the slate (2.7).

Snell’s 32.3% K rate and 17% swinging strike rate leads the slate and this White Sox projected line-up has a 25.3% K rate against LHP since the start of 2018. Layer on the home/road split impact for Snell who sees a 4% increase in his K rate at home ( up to 34.4%)  and this is all setting up for a ceiling type game for the Rays left-hander.

Snell faced Chicago earlier this season on the road and put up 11K’s and 34 fantasy points in 6 innings of work and a similar outcome is very much in the realm of possibility here today.

James Paxton ($18.5K) looks like he is finally rounding back into form after two strong starts against the Rays where he posted a 36% K rate and 16% swinging-strike rate and now gets to take on a strikeout heavy Rockies team on the road where they are a significantly worse offense statistically.

The Rockies projected line-up strikes out at a 25.8% clip against LHP this season and overall as a team they strike out at a 26% K rate against lefties which is the 4th highest mark in baseball. If you look at team hitting on the road this season, the Rockies 28% K rate is the second-highest in all of baseball while their team ISO drops to .157, the 7th lowest mark in the league, a far cry from their league-high .219 mark at home.

Going with a Snell/Paxton build I think is viable for both cash games and GPP’s and you still have $7.5K per player for your hitters which is always a more realistic route on Sundays when back-ups get into the line-up and we get a variety of #FreeSquares come lineup time.