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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 21 – Stop and Snell the White Sox

By Brian Tulloch

BOSTON, MA - JUNE 09: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 9, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - JUNE 09: Blake Snell #4 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches in the first inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on June 9, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /
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ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – JULY 02: Brandon Lowe #8 of the Tampa Bay Rays is congratulated by Ji-Man Choi #26 after hitting a home run in the first inning during a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field on July 02, 2019 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – JULY 02: Brandon Lowe #8 of the Tampa Bay Rays is congratulated by Ji-Man Choi #26 after hitting a home run in the first inning during a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Tropicana Field on July 02, 2019 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:

With two aces locked into our builds, we move towards finding a mid-range high upside stack and once again, my focus in on the Tampa Bay Rays who if I had to guess are probably the team I stack more than any other in MLB DFS this year due to their high upside power and seemingly always under-priced salaries.

The Rays are one of 8 teams on this slate with a 5+ IRT and against Dylan Cease, who has struggled in his early Major League career, this could be a prime spot to jump on their upside once again. Cease has made two starts at the big league level in 2019 so this is a small sample size alert when looking at this splits, but he has given up a massive amount of hard contact (61% to RHB) with only 5% soft contact and against lefties, the medium contact rate is over 64%. So teams are squaring up against the young White Sox right-hander who had always been a 50% plus GB arm in the minors but in his early action in the bigs has only seen that translate to a mid 30% rate.

The top 4 in this Rays line-up has every bit the power potential to take advantage of this match-up as all of Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Ji-Man Choi and Nate Lowe have .200+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2018. You can easily expand this to a 6 man stack on FantasyDraft with Yandy Diaz (.185 ISO) and Kevin Kiermaier (.210 ISO) who have both hit RHP with power in 2019.

A Snell/Paxton combination with a 6 man Rays stack, leaves you still with $6.4K per batter for the last two one-off spots in your build which leaves you some interesting punt play options.

Khris Davis ($6.9K) has seen his price drop significantly due to some injuries/struggles at the plate but KD has deemed himself healthy now and this match-up against Michael Pineda is one I think we can take advantage of. Pineda is giving up a .224 ISO mark to RHB this season and his primary pitch to RHB, the slider, is one that Davis has hit with power – a .236 ISO and 41% HC rate to be exact.

If one Khris Davis isn’t enough, then how about two? Chris Davis ($5.8K) gets some #RevengeNarrative against Andrew Cashner who will face his old Orioles team as a member of the Red Sox.

Cashner relies nearly 50% of the time on his 93 MPH fastball versus LHB and that pitch type/velocity is one that Davis hits for a .270 ISO and 45% HC rate. The issue for Davis is always his strikeout “potential” which sits at a 36% rate against RHP this season, however with Cashner only striking out lefties at a 16% rate this season, it gives Davis the ability to put bat on ball and can pay off his punt price with one swing of the bat.