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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 23 – Launch Pad-dack

By Brian Tulloch

SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 21: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets breaks his bat over his knee after striking out against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning at Oracle Park on July 21, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - JULY 21: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets breaks his bat over his knee after striking out against the San Francisco Giants during the third inning at Oracle Park on July 21, 2019 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Jason O. Watson/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
ST LOUIS, MO – JULY 17: Chris Archer #24 of the Pittsburgh Pirates pitches during the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on July 17, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:

Looking back at Monday’s slate one of the things I noticed about the top 10 finishers in the $25 Home Run GPP was a similar roster construction at pitcher – going high/low with some combination of Gerrit Cole and Robby Ray with Ivan Nova.

I bring that up not to simply try and replicate it, as we know past performance does not dictate future results in DFS, but rather to apply it to this slate tonight where the high-end arms have all the same high K potential as last night but they are priced down $2-$3K from yesterday.

With studs like Trevor Bauer, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Matt Boyd all up top, I think this is a viable route here again today and I think after the success that Ivan Nova had last night against the Marlins, we see massive traction on Dylan Covey as an SP2 as the second cheapest arm on FantasyDraft tonight which gives you a similar high/low build concept.

With that build likely popular tonight, how can we find ways not only to pivot off the chalk names but even more so the chalk builds to give us a totally different look and feel? What if we pay down for both spots tonight and once again, let our bats do the talking?

Chris Archer ($14.6K) finds himself at a price point that considering his K upside, makes him one of my favorite plays on this slate at home against the Cardinals. Archer we all know is a volatile DFS commodity but his recent numbers stand out as an arm that has legit double-digit K upside for what could be one of the best point oper dollar arms on the slate.

Since May 31st, a string of nine starts for Archer, he has a swinging strike rate of 14.4% which is a top 15 mark in baseball and a 31% K rate which ranks 12th in the league – elite numbers by any measure and yet his price remains far too low.

Underlying the data is a noticeable change in pitch velocity as his fastball velocity is up over 1 MPH to 94.5 from the first month and a half of the season and his slider velocity has ticked up nearly 2 MPH in that time.

Today, pitching in an elite pitcher’s environment in Pittsburgh against a Cardinals team with a 25% K rate against RHP who oh, by the way, he just faced in St. Louis and punched out 8 batters, Archer has upside that no other arm in this mid-range can match.

Assuming Covey becomes SP2 chalk, are there other arms in punt-town that could give us similar performance at a fraction of the ownership? Zach Davies ($11K) is certainly not a sexy arm but in the right match-up, like he has here today, I think he is a great salary saver.

Davies is in play when he faces a right-handed heavy team as his .108 ISO mark will support in 2019 against RHB and today against the Reds, he could only have 2-3 LHB in the opposing lineup. Davies struggled in June but has bounced back with three strong performances in July, averaged just under 17 FP/G against Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Arizona. Earlier this season, Davies started 2019 with a bang, putting up double-digit fantasy points in 6 of his first 8 outings including 3 where he went for 20+ fantasy points.

Davies has faced the Reds twice this season, getting rocked in one outing and putting up 15 fantasy points in 6 innings of 6 K ball his first start of 2019. If you dig into those stats, especially the one he got smacked around, it was the lefties, Tucker Barhnart and Derek Dietrich that took him deep. This is a pure line-up play that we need to wait and see on – if the Reds projected lineup holds and it is only Jesse Winker, Joey Votto and an ice-cold Scooter Gennett from the left, side, I think there is a very viable 15-20 fantasy point route with Davies.

We got late confirmation today that SP Tommy Millone ($14.8K) will operate as a traditional starter against Texas tonight which considering he is a lefty, against Texas, put him firmly on our radar.

No team in baseball strikes out at a higher clip against LHP than the Texas Rangers, leading the league at a 27.2% clip and with a projected line-up at 26.4% in 2019. Millone faced Texas twice this season back in May, going 5+ innings both times, racking up 17 and 24 fantasy points with 6 and 7 K’s.

It is worth noting, in the month of July, no team strikes out more in all of baseball than these Rangers, at a massive 30.7% clip. Marco Gonzales showed you exactly what you can get in this spot last night, going 7 innings with 4 K’s and 20 fantasy points and I think you can make the very same argument for Tommy TuTone here on Tuesday.

In the last three weeks, in 16 starts, 10 starting pitchers have gone for 20+ fantasy points and in this most recent three game stretch we have seen arms like Jose Urquidy and Rogelio Armenteros put up massive K totals against this same floundering line-up. Fire up Millone as a pivot/pairing with Archer tonight and a move away from Covey chalk.