Fansided

Fantasy Football Player Profile: Patrick Mahomes

By Adam Strangis

SEATTLE, WA - DECEMBER 23: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass to teammate Damien Williams #26 (not pictured) for a touchdown in the second quarter of the game against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field on December 23, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - DECEMBER 23: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs looks to pass to teammate Damien Williams #26 (not pictured) for a touchdown in the second quarter of the game against the Seattle Seahawks at CenturyLink Field on December 23, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit
Prev
3 of 3
Next
Patrick Mahomes
KANSAS CITY, MO – JANUARY 12: Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs rolls out on a pass play in the AFC Divisional Playoff against the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium on January 12, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Football Player Profile: Patrick Mahomes

Worst Case Scenario 

Worst is most definitely a relative term here because there seems to be little to support Mahomes not being a top-three quarterback, at least. Let’s just assume the exact same passing volume. If his touchdown percentage goes from an insanely high 8.6 percent to a reasonable and still elite 5.5 percent on his 580 pass attempts, that would give him about 32 touchdowns.

More from Fantasy Football

Losing those 72 points would have still had Mahomes as the QB1, but the gap obviously closes in a big way. That would mean the ADP of roughly 35th overall a big mistake. All of a sudden, the 25 points per game turns more into 20-21 and he’s a great quarterback in the fantasy sense but would be over-drafted.

If he’s roughly within 30-40 points of the five quarterbacks he’s ahead of, you can take a Deshaun Watson or Baker Mayfield around pick 70. Those three picks are so important to building a team and it gets a little hard to justify. This comes down to how far you think the touchdowns come down.

Main Takeaway 

I tend to think the low watermark for Mahomes is somewhere between 32-35 touchdowns, and I lean more to the 35, maybe 40 end of it. It just seems silly to project him to repeat history when all statistical evidence would tell us it’s not likely to happen. In a one quarterback league, I’m likely to fade and pick one later to build out the rest of my team.

In two quarterback leagues is where the real questions come in. I’m much more willing to take him, but his current ADP in that setting is 1.05. If I’m sitting there and I’ve missed out on the big four running backs of Ezekiel Elliot, McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara….I’m likely taking Mahomes. Since quarterback is scarcer and flies off the board, I can get value later. For instance, the pair of receiver Brandin Cooks and running back Chris Carson bookend picks 50 and 60.

The best advice is know your league and your settings. Mahomes is worth a strategic fade, but in the right setting, he can make it worth even the highest pick. Mahomes sure looks like a transcendent talent who could break the mold of what we know in the NFL.

Next. Fantasy Football Draft - Studs, Sleepers & Busts. dark

Stay tuned to FanSided Fantasy for all the latest NFL DFS and Fantasy Football news all season long!

Home/Fantasy Football