FanDuel MLB daily lineups July 25th: Main slate

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Main Slate

There’s no way around the obvious for this slate. You have six games, and twelve pitchers. Typically, that gives you plenty of opportunity for a good three to four pitchers to make their case, and usually you have some value plays.

I’d argue for the Thursday night FanDuel MLB main slate, there are no great value plays.

Lucas Giolito ($9,100) has been a rock-solid MLB DFS performer at the pitcher position all season, this year. Considering his start to his career in both Washington, D.C. and Chicago, that is a little surprising. But, not pitching to his full potential he’s always a solid consideration.

With a low 1.09 WHIP, 3.12 ERA, and surprising eleven wins on a nearly .500 team, Lucas appears to have some of the best metrics in this slate. Giolito’s 29.7% K-rate is easily the highest of this slate. The big rub is that, over the last two months the Twins have a 113 wRC+, sixth best in baseball, and a low 21% K-rate, one of the top ten lowest in baseball.

Also, Giolito has given up ten runs in his last three starts. So you’re getting a rock-star MLB DFS pitcher whose starting to hit a wall while he’s facing one of the toughest offenses in baseball. Worse, is this a way to differentiate your lineup? Not really. Many players don’t always focus on the metrics, so his ownership will still be somewhat high, even given the sub-par match-up.

But, two of the top four worst strikeout rate teams in baseball are playing on Thursday night. The Rangers offense has been plummeting over the last couple of weeks, and that includes a spiking K-rate approaching 28%. That is VERY high. Unfortunately, Brett Anderson ($7,800) has an insanely low 11.8% K-rate, easily the lowest of the slate.

The one saving grace of Anderson is that he’s giving up a very low amount of earned runs over the last month. So, to really differentiate your lineup, you could play Anderson against a currently terrible offense with a high K-rate and hope…he gets maybe four or five K’s out of the deal? He’s the least sexy of all pitchers on Thursday, but he’s a sneaky good value play if it works out.

Another somewhat less obvious for value plays at pitcher is Adam Plutko ($7,100) against the Royals in Kansas City. Again, you have a low 15.7% K-rate, but the Royals sort of have a high strikeout rate of 23.6%. Better, Plutko is giving up walks less than 4% over the past two months. And, the Royals give Adam a solid shot at win points.

All of that being said, I’m actually most comfortable pitching Jose Berrios ($9,300) against the White Sox. Unfortunately, this is very obvious so expect high ownership and find a way to differentiate your lineup.

Why Berrios? Well, the White Sox have a 25.2% K-rate in the last two months, the fourth worst in baseball. Their 89 wRC+ is also one of the worst in baseball, so we don’t expect much in terms of effective hitting leading to run scoring from the Chi-Sox.

Berrios hasn’t been a great MLB DFS play over the last month, but that’s mostly due to his match-ups. This one is juicy! Jose is a safe pitcher with a sub 3.00 ERA and low 1.15 WHIP. With the White Sox K-rate climbing, he could also be a 40+ FanDuel MLB point pitcher, assuming he can allow his K-rate to climb well above 20% again tonight.