Fantasy Football Player Profile: Dalvin Cook

Fantasy Football Player Profile: Dalvin Cook

Worst Case Scenario 

Much like the best case, we’re not counting injury since that’s totally unfair. Let’s give Cook the vast majority of the year healthy and see what we can come up with. One issue could be the offensive line. It wasn’t the best last year, according to fantasyfootballoutsiders.com.

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They checked in around the bottom 10 by plenty of metrics and there are still questions about that unit. According to their metrics, Minnesota had the eighth-worst stuff rate. That measures how often a running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. They did take Garret Bradbury in the first round, who won the Rimington Award for the top center in the country. It may not be enough to overcome some of the other weaknesses this unit still has.

There’s also the small matter of the Vikings having $49 million tied up to quarterback Kirk Cousins and receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. I’m not sure Cousins had quite as bad a season as some think, with just about 4,300 yards and a 3:1 TD: INT ratio. Will the Vikes spend 26 percent of their salary cap on three players to have a run-heavy offense? There’s a balance to be struck but money tends to talk in the NFL. It’s one thing to talk about a run-heavy attack, it’s another when the games actually start.

I also can’t say the red zone usage doesn’t bother me at this point. Through his 15 career games, Cook as 25 red zone rushes and four red zone receptions. That’s under two red-zone touches a game and while it’s not a totally fair comparison year to year, it’s something that sticks out. For reference, Alfred Morris, Jordan Howard, Lamar Miller, and Doug Martin all had more red-zone rushes last year than Cook has had in his career. That needs to change in a hurry. It almost assuredly will, but the usage was surprising. At least Latavius Murray is in New Orleans to stop vulturing Cook’s touchdowns. I tend to think that was the biggest issue and if you’re taking Cook, you had better hope it was.

Main Takeaway 

I do think Cook lands on the better side this year but possibly not the full best-case scenario. I hope Kubiak has a heavy hand behind the scenes and Stefanski is willing to learn and listen for Cook to hit the ceiling. The issue is he’s being drafted at the ceiling or very close to it. Every factor has to go right to be the top 10.

I think he’s a major risk at his current ADP and for redraft, will likely not go there unless he starts to slip. I tend to avoid injury risks and there’s not a doubt Cook has been one in the past. I love the flashes we’ve seen and don’t doubt the talent. I would prefer to take Nick Chubb and Damien Williams for sure and possibly Marlon Mack who are all going behind Cook right now.

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