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FanDuel MLB DFS Breakdown 7/29: LA Against the World

By Joe Metz

ANAHEIM, CA - JULY 25: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hits two-run double tote up the game against Baltimore Orioles during the 15th inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 25, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA - JULY 25: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hits two-run double tote up the game against Baltimore Orioles during the 15th inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 25, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /
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SAN DIEGO, CA – JUNE 4: Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park June 4, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

FanDuel MLB – Top Pitchers

Top Play: Chris Paddack | SDP | $8,900

While I do think all three guys above Paddack here are viable, the savings combined with the upside in this matchup have me all aboard the Paddack train.

He’s been in good form over his last four outings, allowing only 5 ER in his previous 24.1 innings with a 26:5 K:BB ratio. On top of that, he held both LHH and RHH to wOBAs under 0.300 while striking out RHH specifically at a 31.4% clip.

As a team, the Orioles strike out at a 23.4% rate to RHP while posting a rather average wOBA of 0.323. On top of that, three of the Orioles projected starters have wOBAs below 0.200 against Paddack’s secondary pitch (changeup), while only three have ISOs above 0.200. If Paddack can do a bit better job of limiting hard contact (40%+ to both LHH and RHH), he has as good of a chance as anyone to lead tonight’s pitching cast in FanDuel points.

Value Play: Merrill Kelly | ARI | $7,800

Merrill Kelly hasn’t been great this season but also hasn’t been terrible. He’s one of those pitchers in MLB DFS purgatory; you never go out of your way to stack against them, but you rarely ever roster him. On the season, he’s held both LHH and RHH to wOBAs under 0.330 and has limited fly-balls for the most part as well (under 40% to LHH and RHH). His 19.1% strikeout rate leaves something to be desired, but his matchup should heighten both his floor and ceiling.

We’ve seen just how anemic the Marlins’ offense is, as they were a popular stack on a couple of occasions last week and surprise surprise, didn’t pan out. Against righties on the season, they’ve struck out at a 25.3% rate with a 0.291 wOBA and 0.122 ISO. This is an elite matchup that should boost Kelly’s stock significantly, making him cash-viable if you want to load up on bats as long as you can stomach some risk.

Honorable Mention(s): Patrick Corbin, Caleb Smith, Sonny Gray