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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 29 – Put down the Coors, grab a Natty

By Brian Tulloch

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 7:Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier (9) celebrates his solo homer with Washington Nationals catcher Yan Gomes (10) against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning at Nationals Park July 07, 2019 in Washington, DC. The Nets beat the Royals 5-2.(Photo by Katherine Frey/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 7:Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier (9) celebrates his solo homer with Washington Nationals catcher Yan Gomes (10) against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning at Nationals Park July 07, 2019 in Washington, DC. The Nets beat the Royals 5-2.(Photo by Katherine Frey/The Washington Post via Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 7:Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier (9) celebrates his solo homer with Washington Nationals catcher Yan Gomes (10) against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning at Nationals Park July 07, 2019 in Washington, DC. The Nets beat the Royals 5-2.(Photo by Katherine Frey/The Washington Post via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:

While everyone will be salivating over the high run totals in Colorado, we have 4 other teams on this slate with 5+ IRT’s and equally talented offenses at lower price points which give us great alternate stacking paths off the chalk.

If you take the name out of it for a second and I told you that there was an offense you could stack against a pitcher with an 18.6% K rate and a 9.5% swinging strike rate who has a .200+ ISO mark against that handedness in 2019 – wouldn’t you have some serious interest?

I doubt many will set out today looking to stack the Washington Nationals against ground ball lefty Dallas Keuchel, but I think this could end up being a low owned stack that has some serious upside.

If you look at the Nationals line-up, they have 6 of their projected 8 hitters with .200+ ISO marks against LHP this season and if you notice, the stack actually sets up perfectly where you can go with 6 straight batters to target the splits. It may seem odd, but skip over Trea Turner and Adam Eaton and go with a 3-8 stack here with Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier, Victor Robles, and Yan Gomes and you are getting a 6 man stack that all has elite power metrics against LHP.

With Keuchel’s huge ground ball numbers, you want to focus on batters with higher fly ball rates and all of Robles, Dozier, Gomes, and Rendon have those metrics in their favor in 2019 against LHP. This is also why I think you can skip over Adam Eaton in your stacks as he has a 53% GB rate versus a 28% FB rate with only a .091 ISO versus southpaws.

The beauty of this stack is that you not only can go full-on 6 man with the advanced metrics on your side, but the pricing outside of Rendon/Soto is insanely cheap and punts like Dozier and Gomes under $6.5K give you the ability to easily pay up for arms and other high-end bats.

Speaking of – with the savings of this bottom of the order stack, you can not only pay for arms but also get arguably the best bat on the slate in Mike Trout ($10.6K) who will take his .397 ISO against RHP to the plate against the worst pitcher going tonight in Jordan Zimmermann. Even with Coors on the slate, Trout is THE bat to build around tonight and one with multiple HR upside facing Zimmermann followed by an awful Detroit bullpen.

Rolling with this build leaves you $7.3K for your last one-off and one player in this range that stands out is Cavan Biggio against Brad Keller. Keller is an extreme ground ball arm to LHB but Biggio sets up perfectly against him with a 62% FB rate and .212 ISO. Keller relies heavily on his sinker to left-handed batters and although the sample size is small (11 batted ball events), Biggo has DESTROYED this pitch type to the tune of a .750 ISO and an average distance of 371 feet!