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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 7/29 – It’s Always Sonny In Cincinnati

By Dan Palyo

FanDuel MLB: MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JUNE 06: Caleb Smith #31 of the Miami Marlins pitches in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on June 06, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
FanDuel MLB: MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JUNE 06: Caleb Smith #31 of the Miami Marlins pitches in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on June 06, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) /
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PHOENIX, ARIZONA – JULY 23: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a first inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Chase Field on July 23, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA – JULY 23: Merrill Kelly #29 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a first inning pitch against the Baltimore Orioles at Chase Field on July 23, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Mid-Tier GPP Pivot

Merrill Kelly (7.8k FD, 8.2k DK) @ Arizona

Can we just stream pitchers (especially right-handers) against the Marlins at this point of the season? I think the answer is yes, and to be perfectly fair Merrill Kelly is a pretty decent pitcher by all accounts. Kelly is coming off his worst start of the season against Baltimore so there may be some recency bias that keeps players from using him, but he has an elite matchup against the Fish here on the road in a great pitchers’ park.

The Marlins have a 25.5% K rate to righties, fifth-worst in the majors. Their wOBA of .280 and ISO of .121 are both dead last, while their WRC+ of 75 ranks 29th (next to last). This is a team that has redefined offensive ineptitude with their lackluster 2019 campaign and I will continue to attack them with decent pitchers, particularly when they are at home.

This isn’t the most ringing endorsement for Kelly, but more of an indictment of how bad the Marlins have been this season. At his price point, he has a great chance of making value and he should allow you some roster flexibility if you choose to pay up for some Coors bats.