Fantasy football player profile: Kerryon Johnson

Fantasy Football Player Profile: Kerryon Johnson

Worst Case Scenario 

One of the worst possible outcomes for Johnson is Anderson is the Blount of 2019. If head coach Matt Patricia insists on Anderson getting more of the workload than we think, that could torpedo Johnson in a big way.

The goal should be 200-225 carries with at least 70 targets, since Johnson and Riddick split 113 last year.

If Anderson soaks up 50 or so, that would leave Johnson with about the minimum that an owner would want. If Anderson takes the 37 percent red zone share, that could be even more hurtful to Johnson in the long run.

Johnson only found the end zone four times last year. That needs to come up to make it worth drafting him at pick number 34, let alone when it goes higher after analysts talk up the loss of Riddick.

The offensive line might not do him many favors either. They were in the bottom eight for “stuffed” rank on footballoutsiders.com and were 20th in adjusted line yards. Johnson was Abe to overcome the deficiencies of 2018, but there is no guarantee that happens again.

Main Takeaway

The stat that keeps coming back to the forefront is just how few backs get to certain thresholds. The seven backs that combined the carries and receptions are the elite in the fantasy landscape right now. Johnson has everything working for him.

He has a distinct coaching philosophy, a lack of competition for targets in an offense, youth and draft pedigree, and the talent to take advantage of the situation. He flashed last year when he was given the chance.

All the tea leaves read he’s about to be the man in the Detroit backfield with Anderson playing a complimentary role. If he’s lucky enough to be healthy, he might be the cheapest RB1 on the board and is a great pair with an elite receiver and tight end in your first two picks.