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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 30 – A Coors Hangover

By Brian Tulloch

DENVER, CO - JULY 29: Nolan Arenado (28) of the Colorado Rockies takes a moment between pitches against Kenta Maeda (18) of the Los Angeles Dodgers during the bottom of the first inning at Coors Field on Monday, July 29, 2018. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - JULY 29: Nolan Arenado (28) of the Colorado Rockies takes a moment between pitches against Kenta Maeda (18) of the Los Angeles Dodgers during the bottom of the first inning at Coors Field on Monday, July 29, 2018. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 24: Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets in action against the San Diego Padres at Citi Field on July 24, 2019 in New York City. The Padres defeated the Mets 7-2. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JULY 24: Noah Syndergaard #34 of the New York Mets in action against the San Diego Padres at Citi Field on July 24, 2019 in New York City. The Padres defeated the Mets 7-2. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:

We have a loaded MLB DFS slate here today with another game in Coors Field and some top-tier arms including Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton and Shane Bieber who are all over $20K on FantasyDraft.

Right below them, however, is the best SP1 option in my opinion in Noah Syndergaard ($19.7K) who gets a road start against the K heavy Chicago White Sox. Now, first and foremost – because I know Brodie Van Wagenen reads Picks and Pivots – PLEASE do not trade Thor – PLEASE.

Now that my Mets fandom is out of the way, this becomes the spot to attack for Syndergaard who has regained his velocity and strikeout stuff in recent starts with a 16% swinging strike rate over his last three starts which is materially up from his 12.5% season-long rate.

The biggest driver of this is two-fold, as his fastball velocity is up to an average of 98.1 MPH while his slider usage has increased to 22.1% which represents a 0.5 MPH uptick in is fastball velocity and a staggering 12% jump on his slider usage previous to the most recent three games.

Against RHP, this White Sox team strikes out at a 26% rate this season, third in all of baseball, and most importantly, project to have 5-6 RHB in the line-up which sets up perfectly for Thor who sees a 6% increase in his K rate versus RHB which is where his slider usage really comes into play.

Going high/low on two pitcher sites seems like the ideal approach today with such a large slate and player pool and Coors Field looking like a realistic option even with Thor as an SP1.

Ariel Jurado ($11K) looks like one of the better point per dollar options in this SP2 range against the Seattle Mariners, a team with a 24% K rate in their projected lineup since the start fo 2018 against RHP. Jurado has actually shown that in decent match-ups he has 20+ fantasy point upside with 22+ fantasy points in his most recent outings against the A’s and Tigers and considering the K upside in this Mariners line-up, I would argue this match-up gives him similar upside tonight.

Jurado is a ground ball pitcher, generating just under 45% GB’s this season and this projected line-up for Seattle has a 40% GB rate versus a 36% FB rate so the batted ball profile seems to support Jurado’s ability to limit damage here tonight with added K boost.