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Main DraftKings MLB picks July 31: Can’t go wrong with deGrom

By Mike Marteny

NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 08: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning at Citi Field on August 8, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - AUGUST 08: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches during the first inning at Citi Field on August 8, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images) /
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Mandatory Credit: Ron Schwane/Getty Images /

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Jacob deGrom ($11,800): deGrom has a 2.12 ERA over his last ten starts, so he has put a rough April behind him. deGrom’s 2.52 road ERA means he has dominated there all year. He will here as well so long as the Mets don’t trade him first. The only threat to the aces tonight are trade rumors, but with the deadline long enough before lock, we have plenty of time to retool. For now, deGrom is a lock if you are willing to spend the money.

Jose Berrios ($10,700): I don’t usually use Berrios on the road, but I’ll make an exception here. A struggling Odorizzi shut down this offense last night. Despite the blow up on Kelly on Monday, the Marlins still struggle against righties, and Berrios is much better than your average right hander. His road numbers are still solid. They just pale in comparison to his home splits. I’m big on Berrios tonight.

Middle Tier:

Mike Minor ($9.900): Minor has been brilliant at home with a 2.73 ERA in ten starts this year. He has also averaged 27.4 DraftKings points per game in three starts against Seattle. If Minor isn’t dealt, this is a smash spot for him. The Mariners are hitting just .192 with three homers and five runs with a staggering 34 strikeouts in 78 at bats. If Minor is still a Ranger, he may be my top play of the night.

Kyle Hendricks ($9,000): Much has been made of the home/road splits on Hendricks and with good reason. However, Hendricks has a solid 3.40 ERA in seven career Busch Stadium starts. This incarnation of the Cardinals is only hitting .215 with no homers, five runs, and 22 strikeouts in 107 at bats. Hendricks is a little pricy tonight, but he’s a solid pivot off the top tier if you wish to do so. There is also enough value to put him in as a high end SP2.

Bargain Pitchers:

Miles Mikolas ($7,700): Somewhere along the line, Mikolas turned into Bob Gibson at home. Mikolas has a 2.15 ERA in ten home starts, and has actually pitched well against the Cubs both times this year. The Cubs are hitting a decent .248 against Mikolas, but they have only two homers and seven runs with 20 strikeouts in 109 at bats. We all know that Mikolas doesn’t strike anyone out, but we’re not really paying for that. We are paying for him to get outs, something which he does a lot of at home.

Ryan Yarbrough ($7,100): Yep, he’s playing Boston. Yep, Morton didn’t do all that great against them last night. Using Yarbrough is not without risk as well, but I have some things to put you at ease. First off, Yarbrough has 41.2 DraftKings points in two appearances against Boston this year despite giving up five runs (four earned). He’s not letting guys on base against Boston, and the strikeouts are high. On top of that, Yarbrough has a 2.30 ERA in 15.2 career Fenway Park innings. There is ample upside here, and Yarbourgh still comes at a discount.

My picks: deGrom, Yarbrough; deGrom, Berrios; Berrios, Mikolas; Mikolas, Yarbrough