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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: August 1 – Happy Lester Day!

By Brian Tulloch

MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs poses during Chicago Cubs Photo Day on February 20, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs poses during Chicago Cubs Photo Day on February 20, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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1HOUSTON, TX – JUNE 14: Houston Astros starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) delivers the pitch in the first inning of a baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays during a MLB baseball game at Minute Maid Park, Friday, June 14, 2019, in Houston, TX. (Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
1HOUSTON, TX – JUNE 14: Houston Astros starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) delivers the pitch in the first inning of a baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays during a MLB baseball game at Minute Maid Park, Friday, June 14, 2019, in Houston, TX. (Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Thursday Main Slate Pitching:

We have a short 6 game Main Slate here on Thursday with some potential rain in Atlanta we will need to watch with a slate that at first glance, looks and feel much like Wednesday’s in that we have some elite pitching at the top and not a whole lot of must-have offenses.

At the top, we have two arms in Gerrit Cole ($22.1K) and Clayton Kershaw ($20.2K) that step to the mound, not surprisingly, as the largest Vegas favorites against an Indians and Padres team with the two lowest IRT on the slate.

What stands out to me with this duo, and a reason I think you can/should pay up for both today is the recent form of these aces. Over the last month, Cole (39.2%) and Kershaw (35%) rank inside the top 10 across baseball in K rates while working at least 6 innings in every single game they have taken the mound.

Cole has gone over 27 fantasy points in each of his last 6 six starts, exceeding 34 fantasy in 4 of those 6 outings and providing a floor and ceiling combination that makes the lofty price tag easy to digest. Kershaw meanwhile has put up 25+ fantasy points in 4 straight outings with a massive 35:7 K:BB rate over those recent outings.

On FantasyDraft, locking those two into your lineups will still leave you $7.2K per batter for your hitters which frankly on a slate without any real must-have offenses, feels like more than enough.

I will say, I think going high-low here tonight is another viable route and one that my gut says will be more popular as you can pair either Cole or Kershaw with a mid-range arm who is on an absolute roll in Asher Wojciechowski ($13.8K) who feels far too cheap considering his recent performances.

Wojciechowski has put up two straight dominant performances, with 10 K’s and 38 fantasy points followed by 6 K’s and 25 fantasy points. The truly impressive part, however, those lofty totals came against the Boston Red Sox and the LAA Angels and now he gets a far easier on paper match-up against a young free-swinging Toronto Blue Jays projected line-up that has a 25% k rate against RHP in 2019. Over the last month, Wojciechowski has put up an elite K rate at 31.1% with a swinging strike rate of 16.3% which ranks behind only Jacob deGrom and Luis Castillo over the last 30 days.

As much as I think going double-barrel aces tonight is viable, going high-low with Woj bombs as your SP2 allows you the ability to take some high-priced bats that could be differentiators versus those who opt to pay up for both arms on FantasyDraft. I will say, keep an eye on the buzz today – if the game log watchers push the ownership too high on Woj, it could be a spot for a strategic fade considering he never showed this kind of K upside in the minors and Vegas has the Jays with the second-highest IRT at 5.4.