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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: August 1 – Happy Lester Day!

By Brian Tulloch

MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs poses during Chicago Cubs Photo Day on February 20, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Jon Lester #34 of the Chicago Cubs poses during Chicago Cubs Photo Day on February 20, 2018 in Mesa, Arizona. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /
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ST LOUIS, MO – JULY 30: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds first base after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on July 30, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO – JULY 30: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals rounds first base after hitting a home run against the Chicago Cubs in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium on July 30, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:

I can feel the tilt already and I have not even started writing the offense yet – but the fact I can stack a cheap offense that has let me down more times than I care to admit this year and can stack them against my arch-nemesis pitcher, is setting up to be either a massive tilt-fest or a night of long-awaited redemption!

The St. Louis Cardinals get to take their right-handed heavy line-up to the plate tonight against Mr. Regression himself – Jon Lester.

You guys know the deal by now if you read Picks and Pivots – Lester may have a sparkling 3.6 ERA but his xFIP at 4.15 and SIERA and 4.3 tell us that regression is coming (eventually right?) and with a .190 ISO and 41% HC rate to right-handed batters, this righty heavy Cardinals line-up should be the perfect stack to take advantage of those splits.

Jose Martinez and Paul Goldschmidt have .333 and .277 ISO marks against LHP this season respectively and as a team, this Cardinals projected line-up has a massive .239 ISO mark against LHP in 2019. The best part about this stack and one of the reasons that I think you can go two aces tonight is the pricing as Goldy at $8K is the highest priced bat of all the Cardinals.

A full-on 1-6 stack for St. Louis is cost-effective and loaded with upside here tonight as a top point per dollar stack as you can go – Edman, Martinez, Goldy, O’Neill, DeJong and Fowler – for an average cost of $7.1K per bat.

Now if you choose to go with Cole/Kershaw and this stack, you still have the ability to get solid bats as your last two one-offs as you can slot in lead-off guys like A.J. Pollock and Ji-Man Choi easily in your last two spots.

However, if you opt to pay down for Wojciechowski as your SP2, your one-offs become a totally different ballgame, allowing you to grab some of the best and most expensive hitters on the slate.

J.D Martinez ($10.7K) is at home against a lefty and enters the game scorching hot, with 3 HR’s in his last 5 games – put simply, there is a reason he is the most expensive hitter on the slate. Cody Bellinger ($10.6K) may not have the traditional splits against LHP Joey Lucchesi, but his .311 ISO mark against LHP makes him an elite GPP play that will likely get a bit over-looked in the L/L matchup and with Mookie Betts sitting at the same price point.

The ability to drop down to Wojciechowski as your SP2, gives you a path to the same/similar K upside as Kershaw while putting you in position to grab elite one-off bats that have slate breaking ability.