Fantasy Football: Offensive coordinator breakdown – Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy Football Passing Game Impact:

Throughout his play-calling career Dirk Koetter has leaned more heavily on the pass than the run, averaging 58% pass vs 42% run in his 11 seasons. In his 2,977 total plays as the offensive coordinator in Atlanta, Koetter threw on 64% of plays which is six percent higher than his career average of 58%.

If you compare Koetter’s 11 total years as an offensive coordinator to his three-year averages in Atlanta, you will also find that the Falcons never threw the ball less than 615 times compared to his average of 567.

With more pass attempts generally comes more touchdowns, so I am not surprised that his teams threw for an average of 29 touchdowns with a low of 26 in Atlanta.

However I am surprised that the average of 29 touchdowns a year in Atlanta was five more than the rest of his career average calling plays. That is a significant bump, and it is another lean in the direction of what this Falcons team will do this season.

Not only did they pass the ball more often in Atlanta but they also completed 67.4% of passes compared to 61.9% which is another significant increase.

I am looking to load up on Matt Ryan late in all of my fantasy drafts as he is the perfect player to pair with a Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton.

Fantasy Football Running Game Impact:

While the passing game was excellent under Koetter, the running game was putrid. The Falcons failed to have a running back rush for over 800 yards (M. Turner 2012) during his three seasons in Atlanta. In fact the only twice did a running back total over 1,000 yards in his 11 NFL seasons.

During his time in Atlanta, the Falcons only averaged 357 carries which is well below his career average of 418. As you can imagine, the rushing totals dropped significantly from his career average of 1,717 yards down to 1,381 during his time in Atlanta.

While the majority of rushing categories fell below his career average in Atlanta the touchdown production was almost identical which is a good sign for Devonta Freeman who should get the majority of goal-line carries.

Not everything is doom and gloom for Devonta Freeman though. When Koetter has had an elite back he has gotten elite production out of the running game. In 2015 Doug Martin had 288 carries for 1,402 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns while adding 33 catches for 271 yards and one receiving touchdown helping him earn All-Pro honors.

He also was key in the success of Maurice Jones-Drew who also had an All-Pro year rushing for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 43 catches, 374 yards and three more scores in the air.