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MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Monday, 8/5 – Giolito or Morton?

By Dan Palyo

MLB DFS Pitching: MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 20: Lucas Giolito #27 of the Chicago White Sox delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of the game on August 20, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. This is a make up game from the weather postponed game on April 15, 2018. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
MLB DFS Pitching: MINNEAPOLIS, MN - AUGUST 20: Lucas Giolito #27 of the Chicago White Sox delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of the game on August 20, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. This is a make up game from the weather postponed game on April 15, 2018. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS Pitching
MLB DFS Pitching: ST. PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – JULY 07: Charlie Morton #50 of the Tampa Bay Rays delivers a pitch to the New York Yankees during the first inning of a baseball game at Tropicana Field on July 07, 2019 in St. Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Top GPP Pivot

Charlie Morton (10.1k FD, 10.7k DK) vs. Toronto

Morton is the top-rated pitcher in my tournament model tonight and it shouldn’t really surprise anyone who has been reading the column this year. Charlie Morton has aged like a fine wine and is having a career year in his age-35 season.

Like Giolito, he’s carrying a 30% strikeout rate into tonight’s game and he also faces a strikeout-prone opponent as he’ll take on this young Blue Jays team at home.

Morton is a heavy -255 favorite tonight against the Jays and in a great spot to pile up some strikeouts. He’s no longer just a ground ball pitcher (though he still carries a solid 49% GB rate). Morton has traded in his two-seamer for more four-seam fastballs and curveballs, which has yielded more whiffs.

Toronto is an offense that has been hot lately, or maybe they have just had the good fortune of getting to beat up on the Orioles pitching staff? Either way, they still strike out a bunch with Bichette and Guerrero Jr. being the only two hitters with sub-20% K rates.

Guys like Grichuk, Hernandez, and Biggio are all striking out in the high 20’s and this Toronto team can really struggle against pitchers who have good breaking pitches. Morton certainly fits that description. He’s pitching at home with a positive park factor and I think his offense will have his back, too.

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