Fantasy Football 2019: 5 Bold Predicitons – Running Back Edition

Fantasy Football Bold Predictions: 2. Todd Gurley will be a top-3 running back

How this is bold:

Major injury concerns following a banged-up 2018 postseason. The Rams also selected Memphis standout RB Darrell Henderson in the 2nd-round of this year’s draft, suggesting Gurley’s time as a workhorse back has come to an end.

Why this will come true:

Injuries are never fun to deal with in fantasy football, but just how far can the hate for Rams’ RB Todd Gurley go before enough is enough?

We all know what the two-time All-Pro is capable of when healthy, but his up-in-the-air status has scared a majority of owners away, causing his draft stock to slip into the middle/late second round. Gurley’s chronic knee ailment definitely raises some red flags, but owners must be careful not to blow this situation out of proportion.

While the Los Angeles coaching staff has been careful in limiting Gurley’s reps throughout training camp (and likely the preseason), reports out of camp have been that the ex-Georgia Bulldog has “looked good.” Even with a reduced workload in 2019, the Rams’ juggernaut offense should give him ample opportunity to put another top-3 fantasy campaign.

The Rams did go out and select Darrell Henderson in the second-round of this year’s draft, but he should be viewed as an insurance policy to Gurley, not a player that is going to significantly eat into Gurley’s workload.

Henderson will still see touches as standout athlete from the University of Memphis, but a healthy Gurley is still the far superior back.

Two areas where Gurley stands heads above Henderson are in the red-zone and the passing-game. In 2018, Gurley led the NFL in red-zone carries by a fairly wide margin (64). On runs inside the 10-yard-line, he took a league-high 36 attempts and converted those into a league-leading 14 touchdowns.

Henderson, while known for his home-run ability, is a bit undersized and isn’t a particularly-accomplished runner between the tackles. If one thing is certain, Gurley’s scoring prowess isn’t going anywhere in 2019.

When it comes to pass-catching, Henderson ranked just 82nd in all of college football with 19 receptions last year. Gurley, on the other hand, saw a healthy 5.7 targets per game, taking them for an average of 41.4 YPG (both 6th-best among RBs).

A true do-it-all talent, Gurley will have owners wishing they took the risk associated with his name as he turns-in another monster fantasy season at a discount on draft day.