Penn State football 2019 season preview: Best and worst-case scenario

James Franklin and the Penn State football team are looking to sustain a steady level of success as Trace McSorley departs.

In 2018, the Penn State football team was hoping to be able to take a step forward in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions started the year in the top 10 and, through the first few weeks of the season, appeared ready to knock off Ohio State and Michigan to climb to the top of the conference.

That didn’t quite happen.

Losing offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead to Mississippi State hurt Penn State’s production. Trace McSorley took a step back as a passer and the strides he made as a runner couldn’t get Penn State to double-digit wins in 2018. After going 22-5 in 2016 and 2017, Penn State took a slight step back in 2019, finishing at 9-4.

Now, Franklin has his sights on keeping Penn State relevant in the national picture. He has to replace one of the greatest quarterbacks in Penn State’s history, and losing backup quarterback Tommy Stevens to Mississippi State might complicate that some.

And it’s not like Penn State has a ton of experience anywhere else on offense. The Nittany Lions are talented, but they’re young this year. Franklin might be relying on his defense more than his offense this season, which would be opposite of what we’ve seen from Penn State over the past couple of seasons.

So what does that mean for its best-case and its worst-case scenarios?

Penn State football best-case scenario

• Aug. 31 – vs. Idaho – W
• Sept. 7 – vs. Buffalo – W
• Sept. 14 – vs. Pitt – W
• Sept. 27 – at Maryland – W
• Oct. 5 – vs. Purdue – W
• Oct. 12 – at Iowa – W
• Oct. 19 – vs. Michigan – L
• Oct. 26 – at Michigan State – W
• Nov. 9 – vs. Minnesota – W
• Nov. 16 – vs. Indiana – W
• Nov. 23 – at Ohio State – L
• Nov. 30 – vs. Rutgers – W

Record: 10-2, (7-2 Big Ten)

The absolute best-case scenario for Penn State in 2019 is that the Nittany Lions don’t regress at all.

Franklin, in attempting to replace McSorley at quarterback with Sean Clifford and Miles Sanders at running back with Ricky Slade and Journey Brown, could find that he has more than adequate replacements.

Now, McSorley leaves behind some mighty big shoes to fill, but that doesn’t mean that Clifford can’t find plenty of success this season. The former four-star recruit shows potential and he’ll have plenty of support from his backfield.

If Penn State were to attempt more of a running back by committee approach this season, the Nittany Lions would have plenty of talent to do that with. Slade is a former five-star recruit and Brown is a former three-star recruit.

But, much of the early season success may not even depend on the offense. It might come from Penn State’s defense.

The Nittany Lions had one of the best pass defenses in the country a year ago. Thanks to a strong pass rush (junior Yetur Gross-Matos had 8 sacks and 20 tackles for loss last season) and a solid secondary (senior safety Garrett Taylor had 3 picks and 72 tackles last year), there’s a good chance that Penn State’s defense can keep the Nittany Lions moving until the offense catches up.

What if Penn State’s offense never catches up?

Penn State football worst-case scenario

• Aug. 31 – vs. Idaho – W
• Sept. 7 – vs. Buffalo – W
• Sept. 14 – vs. Pitt – W
• Sept. 27 – at Maryland – W
• Oct. 5 – vs. Purdue – W
• Oct. 12 – at Iowa – L
• Oct. 19 – vs. Michigan – L
• Oct. 26 – at Michigan State – L
• Nov. 9 – vs. Minnesota – W
• Nov. 16 – vs. Indiana – W
• Nov. 23 – at Ohio State – L
• Nov. 30 – vs. Rutgers – W

Record: 8-4, (5-4 Big Ten)

If Clifford never gets full control of the offense and the Nittany Lions take a step back on that side of the ball, the defense should still be able to carry this team to plenty of wins. But, fans of the Nittany Lions shouldn’t expect to see this team knock off any of the top teams in the Big Ten this season if that’s the case.

Winning at Iowa probably isn’t going to be easy, even if Penn State’s offense is firing like it could be at that point in the year. A loss to the Hawkeyes, and then the Wolverines later, leaves the Nittany Lions vulnerable to hitting a rough skid. Winning at Michigan State, at that point, isn’t a given for Franklin’s team.

Penn State should be able to bounce back, beating Minnesota and Indiana, but with those hypothetical struggles, it’s hard to see this team bouncing back enough to actually beat Ohio State on the road.