Stanford football 2019 season preview: Best and worst-case scenario

Stanford football was competitive again last year but will K.J. Costello and the Cardinal make a leap forward with an even better 2019 season?

The Stanford Cardinal went 9-4 last year, with David Shaw’s team capping it off with a gritty Sun Bowl win over Pittsburgh. However, they finished just third in the Pac-12 North and enter the 2019 college football season looking to get Stanford football back in the conference championship game.

At the heart of that will be quarterback K.J. Costello, who came on strong at the end of last season when he was asked to do more. He won’t have two big weapons as wide receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and running back Bryce Love (though he was not the player we saw in 2017) left for the NFL. However, a pass-catching group headlined by Osiris St. Brown should give him options.

Questions about Stanford’s offense, though, come down to the offensive line. Tackle Walker Little is a stud but the group around him is less proven. And these are the same things that can be said about the defense. Cornerback Paulson Adebo and rush-linebacker Jordan Fox figure to be high-impact players but the concern is that the ancillary pieces around them won’t be up to the task of bettering a mediocre defensive effort from the Cardinal in 2018.

Facing a tough non-conference schedule could make things tough for Stanford as well. With that in mind, let’s look at the schedule and dive into the best and worst-case scenarios for Stanford football in the 2019 season.

Stanford football best-case scenario

• Aug. 31 – vs. Northwestern – W
• Sept. 7 – at USC – W
• Sept. 14 – at UCF – W
• Sept. 21 – vs. Oregon – W
• Sept. 28 – at Oregon State – W
• Oct. 5 – vs. Washington – L
• Oct. 17 – vs. UCLA – W
• Oct. 26 – vs. Arizona – W
• Nov. 9 – at Colorado – W
• Nov. 16 – at Washington State – W
• Nov. 23 – vs. California – W
• Nov. 30 – vs. Notre Dame – L

Record: 10-2 (8-1 Pac-12)

Even in the best-case scenario for Stanford football, it’s hard to imagine this team going undefeated. Yes, they have the talent to beat any of their Pac-12 opponents on the schedule. However, as they play a strong non-conference schedule that includes a tricky trip to Orlando to face UCF and a season-ending date with Notre Dame in Palo Alto, they’re going to be worn down at times.

The Cardinal simply don’t have the talent to hang with the Fighting Irish this season. They aren’t going to get run off the field but Notre Dame but they don’t seemingly have the offensive line to hang with the pressure Brian Kelly’s team can bring up front nor the explosiveness offensively to keep pace with Ian Book and co. in light of that.

Furthermore, I don’t see Stanford going perfect in Pac-12 play in any scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, they’re going to lose to one of the two best teams in the conference, either Oregon or Washington. They get both teams at home, which is nice but they won’t outlast either of them. They’re down as losing to the Huskies here but it could be either them or the Ducks.

Stanford football worst-case scenario

• Aug. 31 – vs. Northwestern – W
• Sept. 7 – at USC – L
• Sept. 14 – at UCF – L
• Sept. 21 – vs. Oregon – L
• Sept. 28 – at Oregon State – W
• Oct. 5 – vs. Washington – L
• Oct. 17 – vs. UCLA – W
• Oct. 26 – vs. Arizona – W
• Nov. 9 – at Colorado – W
• Nov. 16 – at Washington State – W
• Nov. 23 – vs. California – W
• Nov. 30 – vs. Notre Dame – L

Record: 7-5 (6-3 Pac-12)

There is always a defined floor for the Cardinal under David Shaw but it’s slightly lower than it normally is in 2019. In the worst-case scenario, they start the season at 1-3 and then 2-4 and that’s totally feasible.

UCF is an explosive and dynamic team that, if Stanford hasn’t found defensive consistency or offensive weapons to step up, can surely beat the Cardinal. Meanwhile, the USC Trojans are the variable in the Pac-12 that could throw everything into a whirlwind if J.T. Daniels and his offense can put it together.

The loss to Notre Dame stays the same but the other change from the best to the worst scenario is that, instead of winning one of the games against Washington and Oregon, they lose both. The result is a pedestrian Stanford team that, though they’ll still be bowl eligible, won’t be competing at the top of the conference and will be well short of expectations.