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DraftKings MLB picks August 16: The V’s racking up K’s

By Mike Marteny

HOUSTON, TX - JULY 05: Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) delivers the pitch in the first inning of a baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Angels during a MLB baseball game at Minute Maid Park, Friday, July 5, 2019, in Houston. (Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX - JULY 05: Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) delivers the pitch in the first inning of a baseball game between the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Angels during a MLB baseball game at Minute Maid Park, Friday, July 5, 2019, in Houston. (Photo by Juan DeLeon/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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DraftKings MLB
FanDuel MLB: CHICAGO, IL – JUNE 11: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Patrick Corbin (46) delivers the ball in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox on June 11, 2019 at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Justin Verlander ($12,400): I don’t usually pay the premium on Verlander, but I will at least once tonight. The A’s have just one run on Verlander in 14 innings this year and have just six hits. SIX! Add the that the 19 strikeouts, and you have Verlander topping 30 DraftKings points with ease and possibly flirting with 40. He’s worth the money tonight.

Luis Castillo ($10,800): Castillo has terrible past stats against the Cardinals, but he has owned them this year. Castillo has 43.8 DraftKings points in his two starts against St. Louis this year. Add to that the fact that his ERA is a full run lower at home, and Castillo could be in for a really big night.

Patrick Corbin ($10,600): Corbin has a 1.78 ERA in 11 home starts this year and the Brewers have been mostly awful against lefties. Especially good ones. Corbin has definitely been that at home this year. The Brewers have good career numbers against Corbin, but I’ll take the home splits. Corbin hasn’t been under 24 DraftKings points at home since April.

Middle Tier:

Jon Gray ($8,000): Gray is about the only true mid level pitcher that I want to use tonight. His numbers are much better at home, and he has struck out 14 Marlins in 46 at bats. Gray’s going to give up a run or three. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if he got close to double digit strikeouts here. Honestly, I’ll be surprised if Gray doesn’t hit 20 DraftKings points tonight. That makes him a great play for the price.

Vince Velasquez ($7,200): Velasquez has a better home ERA than road mark, but he has not won a game at home all season. I think that changes here. The Padres are just 2-22 against him with eight strikeouts. I know that’s a small sample size, but the elevated strikeout potential may be even more prominent this year. Velasquez does give up some long balls, especially at home, but the strikeouts will make up for it. He is actually a strong play tonight.

Bargain Pitchers:

Joe Musgrove ($6,200): Musgrove has only allowed two unearned runs on just five hits in 9.1 innings against the Cubs this year. In fact, he beat Hendricks in a rain shortened outing back on July 2. It really defies logic that Musgrove can pitch against the Cubs this year, but literally no one else. The time I recommend him will be the time he gets blown up. Use with caution. However, the Cubs are hitting just .154 against Musgrove in 78 at bats with one homer, four runs, and 18 strikeouts. There’s also a chance they will be without Baez tonight since he was a scratch yesterday.

Aaron Civale ($5,800): Civale has been brilliant in three major league starts, allowing just two runs over 18 innings while striking out 18. Sure, one of those games against the Tigers, but he took care of the Rangers and Twins too. Yankee Stadium is going to be tough, but tough enough for Civale to be this cheap? I have my doubts. He is a very good lower tier dart throw.

Aaron Brooks ($4,400): Is Brooks the worst pitcher on the slate? His 6.35 ERA suggests that maybe he is. However, Brooks has 28 DraftKings points in two starts against Boston this year. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are when you consider his price. If you want every bat you could possibly imagine, using Brooks in a situation like this is not the worst idea. Even if he just barely hits double digits, we’re ahead of the game. Brooks may even vulture a win against Porcello.

My picks: Verlander, Gray; Corbin, Gray; Gray, Musgrove; Gray, Civale