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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: August 18 – Knock your Sox off

By Brian Tulloch

BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 17: Xander Bogaerts #2 of the Boston Red Sox poses before a game against the Baltimore Orioles on August 17, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 17: Xander Bogaerts #2 of the Boston Red Sox poses before a game against the Baltimore Orioles on August 17, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA AUGUST 13: New York Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the MLB game between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves on August 13th, 2019 at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA AUGUST 13: New York Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch during the MLB game between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves on August 13th, 2019 at SunTrust Park in Atlanta, GA. (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Sunday Slate Pitching:

At first glance, this 9 game Sunday MLB DFS slate could be a really interesting one as we lack any real “must-have” aces up top which will make it easier for folks to rationalize an approach where they jam in as many high-priced Red Sox bats and the near 8 IRT they have here today against the Orioles.

However, that approach necessitates that we have viable mid-tier arms and frankly, I do not see any that I feel confident in building around all in the name of playing the chalk offense. Rather, the approach I take on FantasyDraft more often than any other is to pay up for both arms as we can almost always find a cost-effective stack that has upside.

Zack Wheeler ($20.3K) gets the same match-up that has made Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom elite plays the last two days against the Royals and despite a rough outing on the road in Atlanta the last time out, I think going back to the Mets right-hander is the best way to attack your SP1.

The Royals projected line-up has a 25.2% K rate against RHP since the start of the 2018 season, with 6 of the 9 hitters sporting 24% or higher individual marks. Wheeler also gets the benefit of a massive pitcher’s umpire behind the plate today who calls 11% more strikes than the average umpire.

Prior to the Atlanta game, Wheeler had put up elite performances against similarly weak offenses like the White Sox and Marlins, racking up 27 and 31 fantasy points in those two starts and this Royals line-up is one that certainly mimics those teams more than the division-leading Braves. Even in that game in Atlanta, Wheeler had some serious bad luck, giving up a .500 BABIP on only 26% hard contact so I expect a big-time bounce-back spot here for Wheeler in a match-up that should give him a path to a 30 point fantasy ceiling.

If you are looking for a pivot, I love the fact that Matthew Boyd ($20.3K) is the same price point as you can easily mix and match if looking to build multiple line-ups without having to change the foundation of your roster builds.

Boyd’s 31.1% K rate and 14.3% swinging strike rate this year are elite marks but after getting roughed up against weak offenses like the Royals and Mariners, my guess is he comes in at a fraction of the ownership that Wheeler does. The Rays projected line-up has a 24.1% K rate against LHP this season, with 6 batters sporting 22% or higher K rates against LHP in 2019. With this game being in a pitcher’s friendly park in Tampa, Boyd could be a nice low-owned pivot off Wheeler that the game log watchers will avoid.

Jack Flaherty ($18.6K) is priced like a low tier SP1 or even, in this case, an SP2 which is somewhat laughable considering this is an arm that over the last month has been putting up elite numbers. In the last 30 days, Flaherty is sporting a 35.3% K rate, the 6th highest mark in the Majors and sandwiched between names like Verlander, Sale, Morton, Cole and deGrom in the top 10.

Flaherty has been at his best when facing right-handed heavy teams, as this is an arm with a 33.9% K rate against RHB this season versus only a 22.6% rate against LHP and when you align that with a projected Reds line-up that has 5-6 RHB (including the pitcher) in it, well you can see where this starts to become arguably the best point per dollar spot on the board.

A Wheeler/Flaherty combination will leave you with just over $7.6K per batter which as you will see in this hitter breakdown – can give you some interesting routes.