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Is Todd Gurley still worth a first-round pick in 2019?

By Matthew Catalano

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams runs into Kevin King #20 of the Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 28, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: Todd Gurley #30 of the Los Angeles Rams runs into Kevin King #20 of the Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 28, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /
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ATLANTA, GA – FEBRUARY 03: Todd Gurley II #30 of the Los Angeles Rams gestures while he is on the bench in the second half during Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on February 3, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA – FEBRUARY 03: Todd Gurley II #30 of the Los Angeles Rams gestures while he is on the bench in the second half during Super Bowl LIII at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on February 3, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Is Todd Gurley still worth a first-round pick in 2019?

Towards the end of a wonderful encore season from 2017, Gurley’s production hit a snag. Concerns started to rise in Week 14 when the Rams traveled to Chicago to take on the Bears. In that game, Gurley only ran the ball 11 times for 28 yards and no score. His air attack was no better as he caught three passes for 30 yards. A disappointing day in fantasy for sure.

The following week Gurley only rushed 12 times for 48 yards, but the poor running production was masked by two rushing touchdowns giving him a strong fantasy performance. Underneath there was still an unease, and it got even worse when Los Angeles chose to sit their star player out for the final two weeks of the regular season.

Some speculated that Gurley was just resting for the more important playoff games after the Rams had everything pretty much locked up. Unfortunately, the playoffs came and more concern grew when Gurley had a combined 14 attempts for 45 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship game and Super Bowl. Then news about Gurley having arthritis in his knees came out shortly after Los Angeles’ Super Bowl loss to New England. The wondering was finally over about what went wrong with the star running back in California.

It is very likely the Rams will intend on using Gurley much less in 2019, unlike the previous two seasons which will cause many fantasy managers to worry about how good his production will be.

Gurley’s talent and ability are undeniable, but if the volume of his carries decreases significantly this year, then it is completely understandable for so many fantasy managers to be wary about selecting him as their top RB on their squad.

Fantasypros.com projects Gurley to get somewhere around 211 total touches during the 2019 campaign which is a major drop-off from what he was receiving in his first four seasons (229, 278, 279 and 256).

On top of that, the Rams selected Darrell Henderson in the third round of the draft this year. It wouldn’t make much sense for Los Angeles to go out and draft a running back so early especially when Gurley is one of the premier players in the league at his position.

The only conceivable explanation for such a move is because the Rams fear Gurley’s condition more than what they are putting on in public and want a security blanket if/when something might happen.

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