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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 19 – Some Bauer hour brews

By Brian Tulloch

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 17: Eric Thames #7 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates with Ryan Braun #8 after hitting a two-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the fourteenth inning at Nationals Park on August 17, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 17: Eric Thames #7 of the Milwaukee Brewers celebrates with Ryan Braun #8 after hitting a two-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the fourteenth inning at Nationals Park on August 17, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 14: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the forth inning during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 14, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown:

One of my absolute favorite parts of being “in this industry” and having the platform I do at FanSided, is that I get the opportunity to talk through my picks with the readers and with the fellow writers at FanSided Fantasy Sports. Yesterday, the hour leading up to lock was spent trying to convince myself and other writers that Matthew Boyd was worth the money while everyone else mocked me and told me pitching doesn’t matter and to play something called a Thomas Pannone.

What is interesting is that in a weird way – both sides were right. Boyd was a key part in my success yesterday however the winning GPP lineup in the $25 tournament on FantasyDraft used two pitchers under $20K and neither scored over 20 fantasy points. So while pitching may not matter this season, I keep arguing that it actually does. 

With that being said, I also think FantasyDraft is a different animal, one with softer pricing than a two pitcher site like DraftKings and supreme roster flexibility which I think allows you to pay up for pitching if you choose and still comfortably fit in the bats you want.

The reason I bring that up is I think today’s slate is going to play out much in the same vein – do we have to pay up for pitching? No. But, we absolutely can fork over $23K for someone like Trevor Bauer if we want and we can feel really good about our roster build.

From a pure metrics perspective, Bauer is the top-dog on this slate with a 27.6% K rate on the season and will face a right-handed heavy Padres line-up with a 25% K rate over the last two weeks (top 10 in baseball) and is without their stud rookie in Fernando Tatis Jr. Bauer is at his best against RHB with a 30.5% K rate versus a 24.2% K rate against lefties and will face off with a Padres line-up that is projected to have 6 of their 9 batters hitting from the right side.

Bauer is volatile, his game log is littered with 3 games in his last 4 where he failed to get into double-digit and even was NEGATIVE in 2 of those 3. Bauer also has the ability, demonstrated time and time again this season, to rack up double-digit K’s and a 30+ fantasy point game so with a wide range of outcomes and a price point many will likely balk at, this all adds up to be a great GPP option where most will likely opt to take the savings with someone like Kyle Gibson ($19.6K). 

Brendan McKay ($14.8K) meanwhile will take his talents back home to Tampa Bay tonight to take on a Mariners team that is striking out at the highest clip in baseball the last two weeks and this price point feels far too low considering the talent/match-up.

McKay has the K ability (27% K rate and 12% SWSTR) to rack up fantasy points quickly against one of the highest K teams on the slate and his SIERA sitting well over a run lower than his ERA tells you positive regression is coming for the talented young lefty.

McKay has struck out at least 7 batters in 4 of his last 5 starts and while the pitch count limit is real, maxing out at only 93 thus far, I think that risk is priced in already here today. As a massive -200 home favorite against a Mariners team with the second-lowest IRT, McKay is setting up as a cash game SP2 with GPP upside.