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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 20 – California love

By Brian Tulloch

LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 20: Joc Pederson #31 is congratulated by third base coach Dino Ebel #12 of the Los Angeles Dodgers as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning of the game against the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium on July 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 20: Joc Pederson #31 is congratulated by third base coach Dino Ebel #12 of the Los Angeles Dodgers as he rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning of the game against the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium on July 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 17: Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers stands in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park in the first inning on August 17, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:

We have a massive 15 game MLB DFS slate here tonight with what looks to be all clear on weather and some really fun ways to build lineups. Right at the top, it all starts for me with Clayton Kershaw ($22.8K), a massive -320 home favorite against the Toronto Blue Jays who lose the DH and head to LA for this late-night hammer.

Kershaw steps into this game in elite form, spinning a 14.8% swinging-strike rate and 33% K rate over the last month which are both top 10 marks in all of baseball during that time frame and the best marks of any starting pitcher on this slate. Kershaw has now gone at least 6 innings with 2 or fewer ER allowed in 7 straight starts and has put up 25+ fantasy points in 6 of those 7 outings.

The consistency is there to make Kershaw a cash game staple and the pricing on this slate as we will dive into a bit more, is soft enough that I think locking him in as an SP1 in GPP’s is going to be a building block on FantasyDraft.

The Jays will lose their DH in this game and with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leaving Sunday’s game with knee inflammation, there is a very real chance the rebuilding Jays could keep their young star out of the lineup here as well which considering he is the only player in the starting line-up under a 20% K rate against LHP, could boost Kershaws’ ceiling even higher.

I write Picks and Pivots at 5AM EST each day, without reading a single other piece of DFS industry analysis so it does not cloud my judgment but even sitting here this early, it is hard not to see a path to mega Aaron Sanchez ($13.7K) chalk night at home against the Tigers.

Sanchez is an absurd -320 home favorite and the Tigers IRT of 2.98 is the second-lowest behind the Blue Jays against the aforementioned Kershaw. In his first two starts as a member of the Houston Astros, Sanchez went 5-6 innings against both the Orioles and Mariners, racking up 6 K’s per game and 21 and 28 fantasy points before a rough patch against Oakland last time out.

We are already seeing changes in his approach as a member of the Astros, throwing his fastball 6% less and transferring that more to his curveball which he is now throwing just under 30% of the time. Considering the curveball is by far the pitch that generates the most swings and misses (37% this year), the more he can command that pitch – the higher the K upside climbs for Sanchez.

Now we all saw how SP2 chalk can blow up last night with McKay who was just under 70% owned in GPP’s on FantasyDraft, and remember this is still Aaron Sanchez, but against a team with the highest K rate against their opponent’s handedness tonight, I am not sure I can make a strong case for fading outside of the ownership game.