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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 21 – Dodger Dongs

By Brian Tulloch

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 20: Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets a fist bump from third base coach Dino Ebel #12 as Muncy rounds third base for home after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning of the MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Dodger Stadium on August 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers defeated the Blue Jays 16-3. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 20: Max Muncy #13 of the Los Angeles Dodgers gets a fist bump from third base coach Dino Ebel #12 as Muncy rounds third base for home after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning of the MLB game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Dodger Stadium on August 20, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. The Dodgers defeated the Blue Jays 16-3. (Photo by Victor Decolongon/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
DETROIT, MI – MAY 15: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros walks to the bullpen prior to the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on May 15, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. The Astros defeated the Tigers 5-1. (Photo by Mark Cunningham/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown:

Remember on Monday’s MLB DFS slate where seemingly across the industry we had second-tier arms priced like hall of famers and it felt like we were all scoffing at the prices? Well, tonight, is it fair to say that even at $23.1K on FantasyDraft that Justin Verlander is actually too cheap against the Tigers?

Verlander leads the slate by a considerable margin in essentially every metric we look at – with a K rate of 34.6%, swinging-strike rate of 15.7% and as a massive -450 home favorite today against the Tigers who have an implied run total of…wait, no this cannot be right. Let me refresh and I will be back.

GOOD GOD – THIS IS ACTUALLY THE TIGERS RUN TOTAL – 1.44!!!!!

No seriously, less than 1 and a half runs? That has to be the lowest of any team on the year – has to be right?

We talk all the time about “don’t get cute spots” and well, this is the definition of that spot tonight. Verlander’s season-long 34% K rate is elite, but over the last month, he is taking it to an entirely different level at 47%. The Tigers on the other side of this game are striking out at the second-highest clip in baseball the last month at just under 27%. The last time JV faced Detroit, he struck out 9 and put up 33 fantasy points – that feels like a floor outing for him at this point – the upside is far too high to consider fading and he should be the first player in cash, GPP’s, H2H, free rolls, dummy builds, you name it.

Speaking of far too cheap – why exactly is Adrian Houser at only $9.9K here tonight? Since moving full time to the Brewers rotation 4 starts ago, Houser has gone deeper into games with each turn through the rotation, throwing 95 and 96 pitches in each of his last two outings and going 6 and 7 innings in those starts.

What’s more, Houser in that 4 game stretch has a 26.6% K rate and 12% swinging strike rate which includes a dominant 10 K outing against the Rangers two starts ago. Houser has delivered 18, 18 and 33 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 starts and at this price point, considering he is cheaper than 7 hitters on the slate – if I get 18 fantasy points from here again tonight, I am signing up for it RIGHT NOW.

The Cardinals are not a team I necessarily want to pick on, but with Houser’s biggest struggles coming versus lefties, this right-handed heavy Cardinals line-up actually may set up well for him tonight.

Going extreme high/low with Verlander and Houser leaves you with just under $8.4K per batter on FantasyDraft which means you are pairing some serious bats with a pitching duo that has the ability to put up 50-60 fantasy points as your foundation.