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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 22 – Another day, another Dodger

By Brian Tulloch

LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 21: Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Max Muncy (13) hits a walk-off solo home run to win the game 2-1 over Toronto at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. (Photo by Scott Varley/MediaNews Group/Torrance Daily Breeze via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 21: Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Max Muncy (13) hits a walk-off solo home run to win the game 2-1 over Toronto at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Wednesday, August 21, 2019. (Photo by Scott Varley/MediaNews Group/Torrance Daily Breeze via Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
HOUSTON, TEXAS – AUGUST 07: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros pitches in the third inning against the Colorado Rockies at Minute Maid Park on August 07, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Thursday Pitching Picks:

Looking back at the last two slates the one thing I have noticed in the winning line-ups on FantasyDraft is that they remain committed to paying up for elite pitching and night after night, having the arms with the 30+ fantasy point upside remains a cornerstone in the most volatile DFS sport we play.

One night after seeing Justin Verlander drop a 40 spot with 11 K’s in a complete game against the Tigers, we now pass the torch to Gerrit Cole ($23.2K) who steps to the mound tonight as simply absurd -500 home favorite against a Detroit team with a comical 1.04 IRT. Seriously, I could not believe the 1.44 IRT for Verlander yesterday and now we get 1.04 – just process that for a second.

The play seems obvious, but so did Verlander and while he was popular, he was “only” 67% owned in the $25 GPP on FantasyDraft last night which meant you had a leg up on a third of the field who opted to fade him. The one difference I see tonight versus last night, we had really obvious punt SP2’s in Houser and Montgomery which made fitting in Verlander an easier path than we have tonight which I suppose may take Cole’s ownership down from where we saw Verlander on Wednesday.

I said it yesterday and I will say it again today – this is one of those do not get cute spots for me and Cole is the very first player in my line-ups. If the Astros stud right-hander is “only” 67% owned as Verlander was yesterday, well once again, we have a leg up on a third of the field.

The mid-tier tonight has some solid under-priced options in Kenta Maeda and Masahiro Tanaka which in a vacuum would be my optimal SP2 type plays but even in the $14-$15K range, the pricing on bats is tougher tonight where I think you need even more savings at your SP2 on FantasyDraft which leads me to go all the way down to Ross Detwiler ($9.4K).

Now Detwiler is a hold your nose and hope your bats win you the slate kind of SP2 – this is not a situation like we had with Houser yesterday with an SP2 that was cheap AND had K upside. Detwiler has a 14% K rate on the season and a 7% swinging strike rate which are both the low watermarks on this slate, so just understand that going in.

What you are banking on with Detwiler is the following – first, the matchup with a Texas Rangers line-up that has a projected line-up sporting a 26% K rate against LHP this season and has five batters with 25% or higher K rates individually. Secondly, you are hoping Detwiler and his slate leading 56% GB rate allow him to take advantage of a Rangers line-up with a heavy ground ball tendency (41%) that when contact is made, gets him easy outs.

Detwiler went 88 and 89 pitches in his last two starts and has put up 10 and 18 fantasy points in two of his last three starts. Put quite simply, if I can get double-digit fantasy points from him tonight, you have to consider this route a success. While the 6+ ERA looks bad, the 4.88 SIERA over a full run lower does tell us that he has ran into some bad luck and tonight if we get some positive regression, well this dart throw just might well work out.