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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 27

By Brian Tulloch

DENVER, CO - AUGUST 18: Colorado Rockies Garrett Hampson, #1, center, gets doused with Gatorade by teammate Charlie Blackmon after Hampson's walkoff, RBI-single in the 10th inning won the game for the Rockies against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on August 18, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies beat the Marlins 7-6. Garrett Hampson singled on a fly ball to left fielder Harold Ramirez allowing Yonathan Daza to score winning the game for the Rockies. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 18: Colorado Rockies Garrett Hampson, #1, center, gets doused with Gatorade by teammate Charlie Blackmon after Hampson's walkoff, RBI-single in the 10th inning won the game for the Rockies against the Miami Marlins at Coors Field on August 18, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies beat the Marlins 7-6. Garrett Hampson singled on a fly ball to left fielder Harold Ramirez allowing Yonathan Daza to score winning the game for the Rockies. (Photo by Helen H. Richardson/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – MAY 07: Adrian Houser #37 of the Milwaukee Brewers throws a pitch during the first inning against the Washington Nationals at Miller Park on May 07, 2019 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Tuesday Pitching Breakdown:

Verlander, Giolito, Buehler, Corbin, Castillo, Morton and a game in Coors Field with a two-touchdown implied run total – let’s just say, this slate is going to be a monster. Even with so many aces on the mound, the trend down the stretch in MLB DFS has been that hitting is what wins you the slate so is it wise to pay up for arms as a contrarian approach tonight or punt pitcher to load up on Coors and other bats?

The answer to that really lies in what value arms do we have to choose from and tonight I think we have some obvious under-priced arms that make an offense centric build, an easy path to get comfortable with.

Last start out, Adrian Houser ($9.9K) was a popular SP2 target priced below $10K on a night we were looking to pay a premium for Justin Verlander against the Tigers. Houser went out that night, pitched 5.1 innings, allowing only 1 ER, striking out 6 and delivering 21.2 fantasy points against the St. Louis Cardinals. Tonight, Houser is once again priced at $9.9K and faces the exact same Cardinals line-up he just grabbed 21 fantasy points against – so, why exactly has his price stayed the same?

Since moving to the starting rotation five starts ago, Houser has put up a 26.3% K rate and 10.7% swinging strike rate while exceeding 18 fantasy points in 4 of those 5 outings. Houser is limiting walks (5%) while generating a near 60% GB rate and limiting hitters to a 27% HC rate all while racking up the K’s. Listen, the game log watchers may see the last start and the same opponent and land on the same conclusion but the reality is, Houser has been delivering now for a month as a starting pitcher and under $10K considering how the slate sets up, this seems like a no-brainer place to start tonight.

Speaking of arms under $10K who are facing the same opponent they just excelled against – welcome Drew Smyly ($9.3K) to the seemingly too cheap club this evening. Left-handers against the Pirates has been a successful strategy more often than not over the last two months, as 10 of the last 15 southpaws to face Pittsburgh have put up 15 or more fantasy points including Mr. Smyly, who faced them on July 21, striking out 8 batters over 6 innings, allowing only 1 ER and racking up 24 fantasy points.

Past performance does not guarantee future outcomes – that is applicable in financial markets and in DFS, but the simple fact that we have two arms under $10K tonight that have gone for 20+ fantasy points recently against the same opponent they face tonight has to raise some intrigue ESPECIALLY when it gives you $10.1K per batter for the rest of your lineup.